Bush's low ratings worry Republicans

President Bush's job-approval ratings have sunk so low - to 31 percent in two major polls - that it's time to pull out the history books.

Not only has he hit all-time lows for his own administration in both the Gallup and CBS/New York Times polls, he is also working his way up (or down) the all-time list of lowest job-approval scores. In the Gallup records, which go back to President Franklin Roosevelt, only Presidents Truman, Nixon, Carter, and George H.W. Bush hit lower points.

Perhaps most disturbing to Mr. Bush is that he is losing Republicans. The Gallup poll, released Monday, showed a 13-point drop in one week among self-identified Republicans, from 81 percent to 68 percent. Frank Newport, Gallup's editor in chief, cautions against overinterpreting those numbers, given the size of the Republican sample (about one-third of those polled) in any single survey. That number has dipped before and bounced back. But polling experts agree that the overall trend is evident.

"Clearly, he's lost ground among Republicans; all the pollsters are seeing that," says Karlyn Bowman, an expert on polls at the American Enterprise Institute. "Now he is just holding onto his base ... the people who are with you when you're wrong or with you when things are going terribly."

It's difficult to pinpoint exact causes week-to-week for a change in support. Overall, voters cite the Iraq war most often as the decisive issue. In recent news, Mr. Newport points to the immigration debate, the new CIA director, and gas prices as other "logical suspects." And of course, some polls show slightly better numbers; this week CNN had Bush going up from 32 to 34 percent.

Still, Republicans are quietly worrying that Bush could even dip below the psychologically significant threshold of 30 percent in a major poll. And while Bush is bringing fresh faces into the White House - so far, a new chief of staff and press secretary - to try to reinvigorate his team, some analysts suggest it's getting to be too late to significantly alter the nation's sour mood going into the November midterm elections.

On individual issues, such as the new Medicare prescription drug benefit, the White House sees signs of improvement. This week, as Bush tours Florida to tout the program, in advance of the May 15 sign-up deadline, aides say the program is gaining popularity. Indeed, the latest CBS/New York Times poll shows 42 percent of respondents say their prescription drugs expenses have gone down versus 19 percent who say they have gone up.

But the dominant tone among Republicans focused on November remains one of concern that the low public opinion of Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress could affect local races throughout the country. In other words, analysts say, some discouraged Republican voters might not turn out - and that, matched with a highly motivated Democratic electorate, could bring some upsets of GOP-held congressional seats. With only a 15-seat margin of GOP control in the House of Representatives, enough upsets could hand Congress to the Democrats.

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