Can Hayden clear Senate?

By the time President Bush nominated Gen. Michael Hayden Monday morning to be the next CIA director, the firestorm over the anticipated selection was already well under way.

Sunday talk shows and Monday headlines were dominated by the vocal concerns of a few congressional Republicans questioning the appropriateness, at this time in history, of putting a military man at the top of the nation's premier civilian intelligence agency. . Also at issue, particularly among Democrats, is General Hayden's role in running the president's controversial warrantless surveillance program when he headed the National Security Agency.

But the early sense of political analysts is that Hayden is likely to be confirmed by the Senate, barring any unforeseen revelations before or during hearings. With the president's job approval ratings now in the low to mid-30s, he can ill afford a major uprising within his own party. Some GOP congressional grumbling is a show of independence from an unpopular president in advance of the midterm elections, but when push comes to shove, most Republicans will fall in line, analysts say.

Clearly, Mr. Bush will have to use some of the "trace elements of political capital" to get the nomination through, says Norman Ornstein, a Congress-watcher at the American Enterprise Institute. But "he's likely to succeed, in part because a lot of these Republicans are going to realize in the end that if this nomination goes down, it's just going to add to the sense of disarray that will reflect on them in November."

The negative voice that received the most early attention belonged to Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R) of Michigan, who as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee is seen as credible on intelligence matters - but has no vote in the Senate. Speaking on Fox News Sunday, Representative Hoekstra referred to "a tremendous amount of tension" between the CIA, Department of Defense, and the intelligence community over the last 18 months.

"Regardless of how good Mike is, putting a general in charge is going to send the wrong signal through the agency here in Washington, but also to our agents in the field around the world," Hoekstra said, adding that even if Hayden were to retire from the military before taking over at the CIA, there might still be a perception that he is under the sway of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

On Monday, Stephen Hadley, the president's national security adviser, defended the Hayden selection on several morning news shows. "The question is not military versus civilian," said Mr. Hadley on ABC's "Good Morning America," noting that several past CIA chiefs have been military men. "The question is the best man for that job.... He's committed to the agenda of intelligence reform. And he's not just a military officer. He's had broad experience in the intelligence business."

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