In Europe, too, a 50/50 political divide

In Italy, Berlusconi won office five years ago on promises of reform, pledging to modernize the Italian economy with changes to the welfare system and the labor market. His failure to make good on those pledges, and the sluggish performance of the Italian economy, disappointed many voters. Prodi offered a new approach, but without threatening a radical break with the past.

In Germany, it was the Social Democratic government's efforts - however cautious - to cut unemployment benefit and to liberalize labor laws, that lost Chancellor Gerhard Schröder much of his support, along with record unemployment. Merkel's image as a root-and- branch reformer was a liability: Last-minute worries that she might be another Margaret Thatcher pushed voters away from her in droves.

That experience appears to have taught a lesson to Nicolas Sarkozy, the French conservative expected to lead the right into presidential battle next April. While branding himself the candidate of "rupture" with his country's stagnant status quo, he carefully distanced himself from his government's failed efforts last month to reform French labor law.

Some observers blame this sort of ambiguity in Europe's leaders for its citizens' uncertainty about which of them to elect.

"Everybody knows there has to be change, but none of the political parties are courageous enough to describe a possible future," says Wolfgang Nowak, an economist with Deutsche Bank's International Forum. "People know change is needed, but leaders have to explain where we are going. Nobody wants to move if they move blindfolded."

Europe's rulers have set themselves objectives in the "Lisbon Agenda" - a list of goals including sustained economic growth and job creation through liberalizing markets and investing in innovative technology. But few European Union members have come near to reaching the targets, or dared to attempt more than piecemeal reforms.

With the short-term losers from welfare or labor reforms more easily identifiable, and more vocal, than the potential long-term winners, governments have been reluctant to take the electoral risk that reform represents.

"They are often not willing to ride roughshod over people's fears," says Mr. Leonard.

"But at the same time, few major parties in Europe run on a platform of simply maintaining the status quo. So there is an underlying similarity of approaches between the left and the right: Different parties just play different mood music about how the reform should be done," he says.

Sometimes, though, the music drowns out the message, says Mr. Moisi, leaving voters without any clear vision to inspire them. "People don't ask themselves who they are for, but who they are least against," he argues. "It is democratic confusion, and loss of morale, which is very important."

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