Kurds quietly angle for independence

"Under Saddam the oil fields were very badly damaged," says Mr. Latta. "Water was pumped into them as cheap way to increase output, and a huge amount of foreign investment is going to be needed.

"And even then it's not just a simple matter of having oil reserves and turning on the taps," he says. "Managing that investment will require a lot of expertise, which the Kurds simply don't have."

The Kurds have, however, at least consolidated their physical control over Kirkuk's oil. Before the US invasion in 2003, Kirkuk was a mainly Arab city. Today Kurds are the majority, having driven out many of the Shiite Arabs brought in by Saddam Hussein to "Arabize" the city.

"Those who were brought to Kirkuk by Saddam should leave and then there should be a referendum," says Azad Jundiani, head of the media office of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) - one of the two main Kurdish political parties.

But a recent move by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr indicates that Shiites are trying to counter Kurdish control of Kirkuk. The Washington Post reported Tuesday that "hundreds of Shiite Muslim militiamen have deployed in recent weeks" there. The newspaper said as many as 240 fighters loyal to Mr. Sadr have arrived to the city.

Almost as important to long-term Kurdish ambitions is Tal Afar, an Iraqi city that's ethnically Turkish but Shiite by religion. It lies between Mosul and the Kurdish enclave of Sinjar near the Syrian border.

"Tal Afar is the Kurds' access route to Sinjar, and through Sinjar they have access to Syrian Kurdistan," explains Joost Hiltermann, a Middle East analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. In other words, if the Kurds can also take and hold Tal Afar, then their dream of a greater Kurdistan remains alive.

"They claim Tal Afar to be a Kurdish area and a place where many Kurdish live but, in fact, it's an important milestone on the road to the creation of Greater Kurdistan," says Dr. Hiltermann.

In the past few weeks fighting there has revived awareness of Kurdish vulnerability, especially as reports circulate that Iranian and Turkish troops are concentrating along the borders of Iraq's Kurdish north.

Many Iraqi Kurds are increasingly aware of the obstacles to greater independence. Both Kurdish political leaders and ordinary citizens are resigning themselves to remaining part of Iraq for the foreseeable future.

"The Kurds desire to rule themselves," says Farhad Auny, head of the Journalists' Syndicate in Arbil. "But at the same time it is not to the benefit of the Middle East, the international community or the Kurds themselves to ask for independence now."

And to this end the Kurds are starting to think the unthinkable and begin a process of forgiving their Arab compatriots.

"Since the establishment of Iraq 80 years ago the Kurds have been exploited and tortured by all Iraqi governments," says Mr. Auny. "We are not going to talk about what we have suffered from the Arabs but it has taught us that we must build a modern and developed country.

"The Kurdish people are flexible and forgiving but they never forget," he says. "To hate is to be weak. You cannot grow good crops in a soil of hatred."

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