China's Hu: well liked, little known

The period was profoundly colored by the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, and this offers clues to Hu's caution, experts say. Hu was close to beloved leader Hu Yaobang, whose death that April helped spark the protest that ended with the deaths of hundreds of young democracy idealists starting on the evening of June 3, and leaving a scar on the nation. Hu Jintao had been close to Hu Yaobang. But during the earlier student protests of 1986, Hu Yaobang was purged for being too mild. (Senior leader Wan Zhen advised breaking up the protests with flamethrowers.) Hu Jintao was forced to denounce the elder Hu - or be cast out himself.

Hu's entry onto the ruling stage then was difficult. "After June 4, Hu had to stay away from any clear positions or stand. He was already cautious, and he became more so," says the senior party member. "And he had to wait a long, long time under Jiang." (Last summer's rehabilitation of Hu Yaobang was approved by Hu Jintao, sources say. Hu reportedly wept on a visit to Hu's tomb, reports of which circled widely in Internet gossip groups.)

"Hu is a new type of Chinese leader," says Yang Zhaohui at Beijing University. "His legitimacy doesn't come from the patriotic war or significant party achievement ... but is being established by winning support from the people themselves."

Currently, China's social atmosphere is in a period of scattered darkness and light. Ever more construction and international trade are under way, and communication technology continues to open up; but the centers of authority are less clear. The government is pythonlike in its constriction of free speech, with dozens of journalists in prison. And, as Hu told Bush when they met for the fourth time in September, Chinese leaders are worried about growing instability and protests in the countryside.

In the US - despite an agenda of prickly topics like rising trade deficits; Taiwan, Iran, and North Korea; energy competition; troubled Japan ties; and counterfeiting - what Beijing most desires is a visit where Hu comes across as a sincere and trustworthy interlocutor.

Yet last year, a Pentagon report pointed to heavy expenditures aimed at weapon systems whose only use is against the US military. But China's proclaimed budget falls far short of nearly all independent estimates. China image strategists earlier coined the phrase "peaceful rise" to describe the country's rapid growth in Asia. Yet as one US official puts it, "Until we hear a better explanation of why China is developing certain strengths, we aren't yet using the phrase 'peaceful' with 'rise.' "

Hu has attempted to diversify his foreign policy away from the US-centered policy of predecessor Jiang. By placing energy needs squarely into foreign policy, China has opened ties with states like Venezuela, Iran, Canada, and Australia. Yet it is too early to tell how well China's policy is developing in southeast Asia and Latin America. Attempts early in the Hu era to solidify ties with the European Union (EU) as a counterweight to the US have been rebuffed by the EU. Hu's current trip shows a great refocusing on US-China ties, as a key to China's desires to reunify with Taiwan and to keep matters friendly with China's best customer, with which it holds a $202 billion trade gap.

Anger in Congress over China's artificial exchange rate and currency evaluation, however, will probably not spur more than the small adjustments China has already made. Powerful state banking interests are opposed to reevaluation; one US diplomat say the banks worry they can't compete.

As China prepares for the 2008 Olympic games, Hu is expected to get his main team in place, and begin to address how a one-party system might adjust to global complexities. "We won't see Hu's real face until 2007," when the next party congress occurs, says a party source. "By that time, we will need to see him."

April 18: Visit with Bill Gates at Microsoft headquarters in Redmond, Wash. Dinner for 100 at Gates home.

April 19: Tour of Boeing's Everett, Wash., factory. Tentative agreement reached this week to buy 80 planes for $5.2 billion.

April 20: Bush greets Hu on White House South Lawn with 21-gun salute and review of honor guard. Meetings later with the vice-president, members of Congress, and others.

April 21: Hu visits Yale University.

Sources: White House, wire services.

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