Democrats eye big House gains
Energized by GOP scandals, they grow more confident of winning control of Congress.
California Democrat Francine Busby's first-place showing in Round 1 of Tuesday's special congressional race may give her party a jolt of optimism in its quest to retake the House in November.
But come the June 6 runoff, analysts say, reality will set in: The seat she seeks to occupy, the one vacated by the now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R), represents a strong Republican district and the odds are steep against her in a two-person race against a Republican. The GOP has a 15-point registration advantage in the San Diego district. In at least the past 40 years, the Democrats have never defeated a Republican in a district with more than about a four-point GOP registration advantage, says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.
Still, Democrats remain energized about November, when every House seat is up for election, and they seek to wipe out a 15-seat Republican margin of control and then some. Only about 35 of the 435 races are competitive, so there's little room for error. Privately, some GOP political handicappers, in a race-by-race assessment, predict that the Democrats will pull it off, as the national mood toward President Bush and the Republican-ruled Congress sours further.
The two latest generic congressional polls - testing which party voters want in charge - favor the Democrats by large margins: 10 points in one, 16 in the other.
This gap "suggests something about the national mood, but whether it will be sustained through the fall or just how that will translate into seat swings is another question," says Professor Jacobson. "But it's the best shot the Democrats have had since they lost the House in 1994. If they don't get it this time, they'll really have to worry."
The long spate of bad news for Republicans - from indictments in Congress and the White House to a stalled agenda to the Iraq war - has sparked aggressive Democratic recruitment of candidates and fundraising.
Intensity of feeling also favors Democrats. There's little danger that droves of Republicans will vote Democratic, but there is a danger that Republicans will stay home in numbers large enough to swing some contests.
Analysts of congressional races are now looking at the next layer of races - those that would probably stay Republican in a typical year, but could change hands in a "wave" year, which this looks to be - to see if the list of competitive races needs to be expanded.
Nonpartisan campaign-watcher Stuart Rothenberg writes that the Democrats have widened the playing field by putting "at least a handful of new districts" into play, not counting open seats. Both he and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report have recently added two GOP incumbents to their watch lists - Reps. J.D. Hayworth of Arizona and Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania - with the emergence of potentially strong challengers.
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