Election further clouds Thai leader's future

Calls for political reform have grown louder during the current crisis over Thaksin's leadership. Opposition parties cited his alleged interference with key appointments to regulatory agencies as one reason for their election boycott. Thaksin has denied interfering in the process, which is the task of the Senate, a body without party affiliations.

Analysts say the battle over the constitution will be hard to resolve as some of the flaws identified by critics hinge not on rules and regulations but on the personal integrity of officials to remain impartial. But many concur that the checks and balances written into the constitution haven't worked effectively under Thaksin's brand of authoritarian rule.

"As with any constitution, all the parts have to work. Having big parties isn't any good as long as you don't have independent bodies to provide a check on power," says Michael Montesano, assistant professor of Southeast Asian studies at the National University of Singapore.

Thaksin huddled Monday with political aides as details emerged of his Pyrrhic victory. Some party officials appeared taken aback by the size of the protest vote. But Thaksin appeared to brush off earlier speculation that he would resign as party leader. Instead he said Monday that he would set up a panel to seek a way out of the political impasse, and that he would resign if the panel recommended it.

"I will tell the 16 million voters [who cast ballots for Thai Rak Thai] that this committee wanted me to quit and I will quit," he said on a political talk show a day after the election.

Thaksin has in the past offered to set up an independent commission to amend the 1997 Constitution, which he has been accused of undermining.

Opposition parties insist that Thaksin must make the first move to end the parliamentary deadlock. "The government has pushed itself and the country into a corner. We've tried to persuade them to be flexible ... but I don't think Thai Rak Thai is willing to give up its claim on power," says Surin Pitsuwan, former foreign minister and opposition MP.

Analysts say the standoff is worrying because of the potential for violence, both at street protests and in other situations where tensions have boiled over. While the mass protests in Bangkok have all been peaceful, security officials have called for a postelection return to "law and order," signaling a possible crackdown on disruptive rallies.

But perhaps a greater danger is from political operators on the defensive.

Last week, a group of Thaksin supporters in his hometown of Chiang Mai stormed a meeting and chased away the leader of the main opposition Democrat Party. A small bomb was earlier defused outside their party headquarters in Bangkok. A mob also besieged an opposition newspaper in Bangkok and forced its closure over claims that a story was disrespectful to Thailand's revered monarch.

"We're not seeing opposition violence. The great concern is can Thaksin control his supporters? I don't think he can," says James Klein, representative of the Asia Foundation in Thailand.

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