Q&A: What's behind the political turmoil in Thailand?

The protesters represent a minority, but one that is more powerful and vocal. They know how to organize, and they have financial support, and they have connections with the media. Governor Chamlong's group is a good example: they are a very small group - maybe between 10,000 and 40,000 members, but very organized and very focused.

Is there a danger that these groups could undermine Thailand's democracy?

Yes, certainly. On one hand, when you have certain members of a society that is not in the majority protesting on the streets and demanding the resignation of government officials outside of any lawful procedures, that is obviously a threat to democratic institutions. This is not a good sign for democratization in Thailand.

But on the other hand, democratic institutions in Thailand are much stronger than in several countries, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, and I think that these institutions may survive and that these street protests may not be all that bad. Today, democracy in Thailand is not that progressive or liberal: The executive power has much more authority over the parliamentary system than in many Western countries. These protests may lead to constitutional changes allowing for a more balanced system in the future. So it may not be that bad, as long violence doesn't take place in the streets like in the past.

The prime minister has called for snap elections on April 2, but many opposition groups are boycotting the election. What outcomes are likely?

The situation is very fluid. It seems as though the election on April 2 could be held, although there are a lot of problems. Many districts have no candidates, and many other districts have only one candidate. A candidate needs at least 20 percent of eligible voters to win. So we may have a parliament without a full house, which cannot convene. So there may be many more elections after that. We may be in a constitutional crisis. The prime minister is expected to win, but with these problems he may not have a mandate.

So the prime minister may end up negotiating with opposition groups after the election. Certain compromises could be made. The prime minister may set up a body to amend the Constitution. That's going to be a hard fight.

It's also possible that the prime minister may appoint a caretaker to oversee the government while the constitution is amended, and to take the pressure off of him. But choosing the caretaker is going to be a big battle too.

What can be done to prevent such crises in the future?

This current crisis demonstrates that democratic institutions in Thailand are much weaker than we thought. Although the 2005 election produced a majority and a stable parliamentary system, it doesn't mean that democratic institutions are strong and stable. Crisis can strike at any place and any time. The lesson is that many emerging democracies need to strike a better balance in their society, to take into consideration demands from minorities. But we hope that with this lesson we can come up with a more proper, more balanced system without any violence.

Thai society has from time to time had its share of violence, but by and large I think Thai society is quite peaceful, and we hope that traditional institutions such as the monarchy, the temple, and the middle class can act in the interests of the country. That is of course our hope, that this compromise can be reached in a pragmatic, Thai way.

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