A new 'cold war'?
US, Britain, look at 'third way' to encourage regime change by Iranian people.
The United States may be preparing for a "cold war" with Iran. Paul Reynolds, the world affairs correspondent of the
BBC, says that the US is
looking at the idea as a 'third way' between trying to engage the hard-line mullahs at the top of the Iranian government, and attacking the country's nuclear facilities. The idea is that "regime or policy change could be effected by the Iranian people themselves."
The idea for this third way is being championed by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The hope is that it will buy time for Western policy-makers to come up with a way to stop Iran's nuclear program. But the new policy is also born of a disagreement in the White House on how to move forward.
The old policy of engagement with Iran has run into the ground. Even its advocates accept that they cannot get round the problem of Iran's method of government. Senior ayatollahs have a veto on reform and blocked reformist candidates in last year's election.
At the other end of the spectrum, those favouring military strikes against Iranian nuclear installations are having trouble in justifying a policy which would have huge consequences, adding to the problems the US is already facing in Iraq.
But Mr. Reynolds notes that the 'cold war could go hot' if Washington decides that this approach won't stop Iran from building a bomb.
The Washington Post reported Monday that the Bush administration has been "huddling in closed-door meetings on Iran, summoning academics for advice, creating an Iran office in Washington and opening listening posts abroad dedicated to the efforts against Tehran." While the administration is
not using the term regime change publicly, that is has become the objective.
"The message that we received is that they are in favor of separating the Iranian people from the regime," said Esmail Amid-Hozour, an Iranian American businessman who serves on the Hoover Institution's board of overseers.
"The upper hand is with those who are pushing regime change rather than those who are advocating more diplomacy," said Richard N. Haass, who as State Department policy planning director in Bush's first term was among those pushing for engagement.
There are numerous signs of the new emphasis on Iran. The State Department has created a full-time Iran desk. In the past, only two people worked on Iran, but that number has been increased to 10. There will be increased Farsi language training, and the Voice of America has received more money to improve and increase broadcasts into Iran. Currently VOA does only one hour of programming into Iran; that will soon increase to four.
The
Press Association reports that British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, in a speech to the Center for Strategic International Studies, gave a hint of this
new approach when he said that Britain had no objection to Iranians benefiting from "civil nuclear power" and that he wished them a "a freer, more democratic and prosperous future."
But he said that the regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was leading the country in "the wrong direction" and risked damaging the prospects of its people if it continued on the path of confrontation.
"If the Iranian regime chooses not to heed the concerns of the international community, it will damage the interests of the Iranian people," he warned, in a speech to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
But the
Post also reports Wednesday that prominent activists inside Iran say that Washington's plan to promote regime change by the Iranian people themselves is "
the kind of help they don't want." These activists say the very act of announcing the program places human rights advocates in danger because it makes them seem to be agents of the US's agenda.
"Unfortunately, I've got to say it has a negative effect, not a positive one," said Abdolfattah Soltani, a human rights lawyer recently released from seven months in prison. After writing in a newspaper that his clients were beaten while in jail, Soltani was charged with offenses that included spying for the United States.
"This is something we all know, that a way of dealing with human rights activists is to claim they have secret relations with foreign powers," said Soltani, who co-founded a human rights defense group with Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi. "This very much limits our actions. It is very dangerous to our society."
In Iran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed once again to
resist international pressure on his country's nuclear program. The
BBC reports that Mr. Ahmadinejad said no power could take away nuclear technology.
"One of them delivered a so-called speech yesterday by saying that not all the Iranian people are pursuing nuclear energy," he said, in what appeared to be a reference to a speech by British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw on Monday.
"I am telling them to open their ears and listen to the cry of the people of Gorgan and Golestan concerning nuclear energy," he told the crowd, which began chanting "Nuclear energy is our absolute right".
The Iranian government continues to say it has a nuclear program in order to provide nuclear energy to the Iranian people, not build a nuclear weapon.
Finally, it seems as if the issue of a nuclear-free Middle East may soon be on the table.
The Jerusalem Post reported Monday that last week Straw also said that the world should turn its attention to
the Israeli nuclear program once it finishes dealing with Iran. The Israeli government did not reply to Straw's statements. Israel has had a nuclear program for years, but has refused to acknowledge that it exists and is not a signatory to the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
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Tom Regan
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