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posted March 7, 2006 at 11:00 a.m.

IAEA: Deal on Iran's nuclear program close

ElBaradei says a deal is possible, but US is skeptical of new negotiations.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, says a deal with Iran on its nuclear program is possible, and may be concluded within several days.

The Washington Post reports the new proposal would see Russia giving Iran enough slightly enriched uranium to run its nuclear generators for civilian purposes, but not enough to build a nuclear weapon. But the Russian proposal would also allow Iran to conduct small-scale uranium enrichment under strict perimeters set by the UN and the IAEA.

In return, the diplomats said, Iran would be asked to recommit to in-depth IAEA probes of its program on short notice. Iran canceled such investigations last month after the IAEA's 35-nation board put the UN Security Council on alert by passing on Iran's nuclear dossier.

EUobserver, an independent European Union news site, reports that the Russian proposal had " divided" supporters of UN sanctions against Iran for its program. Germany was cautiously in favor of Russia's idea, while Britain and France were against, and continued to support the US position.


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Germany is the one that "could most live with a pilot enrichment plant in Iran," a European diplomat told Reuters, adding however that Berlin would never allow Tehran to break EU unity in the standoff.
A US state department spokesman rebuffed the idea of small-scale enrichment on Iranian soil, saying "You can't be just a little pregnant."

The New York Times reports that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called ElBaradei on Monday to tell him the US could not support the proposal, which still has not been made public. US officials also said that Russian diplomats told them that no formal proposal was on the table. The US wants to get past the IAEA meeting and on to the UN Security Council, but officials worry that the Russian proposal is meant to slow down that process.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports that John Bolton, US ambassador to the United Nations, told some British MPs that the US will use strategic airstrikes or a special forces raid against some Iranian targets if the country doesn't stop its program.

In Washington, the MPs spoke to the sometimes-controversial US Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton. And they quoted him saying: "We can hit different points along the line. You only have to take out one part of their nuclear operation to take the whole thing down."
In response, one of Iran's senior commanders said his country would become a killing field for any enemy aggressor.

Time magazine reports, however, that observers should not be misled by all the rhetoric - there's not likely to be any kind of serious confrontation yet.

There's unlikely to be any kind of showdown any time soon for one overarching reason �� there is simply little appetite among the key players in the dispute to escalate matters. The IAEA had already in principle decided, at its previous board meeting in January, to refer Iran to the Security Council, yet Monday's meeting �� expected to last up to three days �� is still expected to offer Tehran another 30 days in which to cut a deal. Veto-wielding Security Council members Russia and China remain resolutely opposed to sanctions, which conflict with their own national economic interests, and it's not immediately clear exactly what outcome the US �� which currently holds the rotating Security Council chair �� would seek from a Council discussion on the Iran issue.

The Associated Press reports that while the US talks tough, the reality is that it will still need the help of Russia in order to convince the UN Security Council to pursue sanctions against Iran. Russia is Iran's most important business partner, and political ally.

On both Iran and Hamas, the United States needs Russian acquiescence, if not outright support. That may make it more difficult for the administration to press Lavrov very hard over what Rice recently called a disturbing erosion of democratic guarantees in post-Soviet Russia. US officials insist they will not give Russia a pass.
"There are areas where ... we differ, and we think we can have a frank and candid exchange of views with them on those subjects," State Department spokesman Tom Casey said Monday. "We're certainly going to continue to make clear our concerns about those areas where we do have problems."

The Los Angeles Times reports that in Iran itself, the issue is seen as one of "nationalism mixed with a feeling that Iran too often has been treated as an exception to the rules of international relations." Even those opposed to the hard-line fundamentalist regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad support Iran's drive to produce nuclear power.

Linda Heard, writing in the Arab News, says that the feeling in much of the Middle East is that the US is using a double standard toward Iran's nuclear policy.

While the US and its European allies are demanding Iran's compliance, the American president has himself flouted the terms of the NPT by offering nuclear technology to nuclear-armed India, which is not a signatory.
On the other hand, Iran has abided by the treaty's chapter and verse and there is as yet no smoking gun to indicate it is pursuing a nuclear weapons program. George Bush makes no apology for this glaring double standard other than to point out that India is a democracy, which presumably means it should be trusted ... However, America's hallowed democracy standard does not apply to Hamas, which was fairly elected to govern the Palestinian people. If the US has its way, Hamas is to be starved out of office.

Also on Monday, two other countries called for more time for a negotiations. Agence-France Presse reports that China called on Iran to cooperate with the IAEA immediately, but also called for restraint on all sides. The Hindustan Times reports that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Parliament that India " did not favour a confrontation" or "coercive" methods to settle the problem.