In Asia, two democracies wobble

Officials said rogue Army officers and civilians were planning to capitalize on the unrest to undermine Arroyo, though some stopped short of calling it a coup. "What we have are continual headaches, but we won't be toppled [by them]," says Norberto Gonzalez, national security adviser to Arroyo. "We have enough powers to meet the challenges that we're facing."

This isn't the first time that Arroyo has dealt with alleged coup plots. Since last year she has struggled to refute allegations of widespread ballot tampering during her 2004 presidential victory. An impeachment push in September failed to get enough votes, prompting an upsurge in street activism. The emergency rule announced Friday permits the president to ban street rallies, suppress news reports, and arrest suspects without warrants.

Arroyo has held out the possibility of early elections as part of a package of reforms and a switch to a parliamentary system. Proponents say this would make politicians more accountable to voters. But analysts warn that without a clean vote, Arroyo will continue to face credibility problems, unlike her Thai counterpart.

"Nobody contests the fact that Prime Minister Thaksin won the last election, and if he calls elections and wins, nobody will doubt that win, whereas there are serious reservations about whether President Arroyo won in 2004," says Steven Rood, director of the Asia Foundation in Manila.

The turmoil comes as Filipinos reflect on the legacy of their 1986 uprising that restored democracy but failed to build a solid political framework. Coming to power in 2001 during another "people power" movement backed by security forces, Arroyo's weak position partly stems from her reliance on the military as a guarantor of power in a country long plagued by coups.

Arroyo has lost support, but many middle-class voters see little alternative among the squabbling political elite. And with many disillusioned with past protests that have ousted one leader only to get another corrupt leader, few are rushing to the streets to join the latest protests. "People power is currently exhausted. People don't see it as a viable way to improve governance," says Mr. Rood.

While Thailand shares a history of military meddling, civilian rule was strengthened in the 1990s by a constitution that favored consultation over coercion. It also has a revered monarch who has intervened before to defuse political conflicts, most recently in 1992 after violent street protests against a military-backed government.

Thaksin referred to these chapters in his national televised address, and to the risk of violence at the current rallies, which have been peaceful. "I am ready to accept the decisions of the people. But I will never accept those outside the system who claim to be deciding for the people," he said.

But analysts warn that even a convincing election victory may not be enough to end the protests. "If [Thaksin] comes back with the same style of governing and vested interests, then we're going to see people back on the streets," says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

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