An abortive coup and street protests forced the elected leaders of two troubled democracies in Southeast Asia - Thailand and the Philippines - to abruptly shift gears Friday.

In Manila, President Gloria Arroyo declared emergency rule to defy an expected military coup on the anniversary of an iconic popular uprising in 1986. Security forces later dispersed 5,000 protestors who had gathered to vent their fury against Ms. Arroyo, whose administration has been dogged by charges of incompetence and vote-rigging.

In Thailand, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra ended weeks of speculation over the legitimacy of his rule by dissolving parliament to make way for an election on April 2 - three years earlier than expected. He called this the best way to end the "mob rule" - the mass protests that have been growing in recent weeks. An estimated 30,000 Thais rallied again Sunday in the capital Bangkok to urge Mr. Thaksin to resign over alleged corruption.

While the two leaders face differing political challenges, both are struggling to satisfy expectations among voters for sustainable reforms. Their plight, say analysts, suggests that unless young democracies develop the institutions that support the rule of law - going beyond the simple right to vote - their governments remain vulnerable to "people power" coups that will usurp the democratic processes.

"The dilemma faced by both these leaders demonstrates that the triumph of electoral democracies needs to be accompanied by changes to the institutional and social settings," says Michael Montesano, assistant professor of Southeast Asian studies at the National University of Singapore.

Of the two, Thaksin appears to be in a stronger position. Last year his party won a landslide majority that is unlikely to be reversed given the weight of rural voters who still favor Thaksin, a former police colonel who founded Thailand's dominant mobile-phone company. Last month, his family sold their shares in the company to foreign investors, netting a $1.9 billion tax-free windfall and sparking a nationalist backlash.

Critics say that in addition to putting his business interests first, Thaksin has set back Thai democracy by muzzling the media and undermining the judiciary and other independent institutions. His failure to contain a two-year insurgency in the Muslim south has also drawn criticism.

Despite this, opposition politicians say they aren't ready to contest an election against Thaksin's well-funded party. Some are pushing for a boycott of the polls. Analysts say a likely outcome of the elections is a reduced majority for Thaksin.

Paradoxically, Ms. Arroyo's resort to emergency powers speaks to the weakness of her rule. Manila was already on alert in the run-up to the 20th anniversary of the "people power" revolt against ex-dictator Ferdinand Marcos, when protesters vowed to gather in large numbers.

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