Dollar a day vs. drug profits

Instead, the clash is something that many Afghans feel in their gut. The average salary of a government worker is $40, but more than 70 percent of the population is unemployed. Overall, the median monthly income for Afghan wage-earners is around $35, according to the US military. That's just over a dollar a day, and most wage-earners here tend to have 10 or more family members to support.

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"You had a window of opportunity in 2002, when the Taliban were gone and the people were ready to support you and make sacrifices," says one foreign consultant with long experience in Afghan aid projects. "But now, that moment is lost. The people have given up on this government. I don't see how you solve it now."

While wage levels remain stagnant for ordinary Afghans, there has been an ostentatious construction boom in Afghan cities that shows the growing economic appetite of the new Afghan elite, including government bureaucrats who could not afford such luxuries on their $50 to $100 monthly salaries. Foreign aid workers, living in large compounds and driving around expensive four-wheel drive SUVs, are increasingly seen as part of a privileged elite.

"These are time bombs," says the foreign consultant, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It's just a matter of time before the anger starts to take some form."

Solutions: commitment and jobs

The way to turn Afghanistan around, diplomats and government officials agree, is to honor the promises made in the past, and to get the legal economy moving.

On Feb. 8, 22 former State Department officials and Afghan experts signed a letter to congressional leaders in the US, calling on the US to stay committed to Afghanistan.

"Much has been accomplished ... but Afghanistan is still a nation at risk, and success in turning it into a functioning democracy and an economically viable state is not assured," the letter read.

Referring to the new "Afghan Compact" signed this month by the US and 60 other countries, which generated $10 billion in donor pledges, the letter writers called for the US to consider its $1.1 billion pledge for next year to be the "floor, not the ceiling" of US commitments.

"The government would not last two months without external support," says Houmayun Assefy, a former presidential candidate who largely supports the Karzai government. "I told this to a minister friend of mine and he said, 'No, it will not last one week. You'll have fighting in the streets."

Privately, US officials are now beginning to admit that military action cannot succeed without a coherent political plan. After a year of serious US military victories against insurgents last year, it is clear that the Taliban are unable to defeat the US in a frontal assault. But this has not brought greater security. The Taliban have simply changed tactics. Now they attack poorly defended Afghan police checkpoints; leave roadside bombs for poorly equipped Afghan National Army patrols; or assassinate pro-government mullahs, teachers, and Afghan aid workers.

However, most attacks against NGOs appear to be pure criminality. "Right now, it is quite clear that these attacks are not being targeted for political reasons," says Christian Willach, manager of the Afghanistan NGO Safety Organization, which advises aid agencies on security issues.

According to ANSO, 12 aid workers were killed in 2003, 24 were killed in 2004, and 31 were killed in 2005. This last number does not include the seven parliamentary candidates and four election workers who were killed during last year's parliamentary election.

And if, as many US Defense Department officials say, the Taliban are taking a cut from the drug trade, then they can sustain a guerrilla insurgency for quite some time.

"I don't think there is a pure military solution here," says Mr. Fishstein with the AREU. "In your military activities, you have to be more nuanced and sophisticated about how life goes in a rural environment, and try to build legitimacy for the government without creating more enemies."

While the US military is handing over command of the restive south to NATO forces, US troops will continue to remain in Afghanistan for some time.

But the nature of the US presence in Afghanistan still has a short-term feel to it. The US journalist David Halberstam once wrote that America's habit of sending diplomats to Vietnam on one-year rotations meant that the US didn't have 10 years of experience in Vietnam; it had one year of experience, 10 times. Many longtime foreign observers here say the same habit is being repeated in Afghanistan.

"In short tours, basically people go out to the countryside and by the time they figure out not to eat with their left hands, it's time to leave," says Fishstein, who has been coming to Afghanistan on aid projects since the 1970s.

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