Caught in the fray: Turkey enters debate on Iran's nuclear program

"The bottom line is that Turkey can't accept an Iran with nuclear weapons. A nuclear-weapons-capable Iran or a nuclear-armed Iran is not in the interest of Turkey," says Mustafa Kibaroglu, an expert on nuclear nonproliferation issues at Bilkent University in Ankara.

The increasing international pressure on Iran comes at a time when the Turkish government, led by the moderately Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP), has been working hard to improve relations with its neighbors, especially Iran. The past few years have seen bilateral trade between Turkey and Iran grow dramatically, shooting up from $1 billion in 2000 to $4 billion in 2005.

The government's approach, says Mr. Kibaroglu, has led to a division among Turkish policymakers about how to proceed on the Iran question. "I don't think the officials agree among themselves what to do," he says.

"The perception of the government, as far as I can see, doesn't fit the perception of the military. The military is more skeptical of Iran's intentions compared to the politicians who run the country."

For now, analysts say, the split revolves around how aggressively Turkey should involve itself in diplomatic efforts to contain Iran's nuclear program.

Both the government and the military currently oppose any sort of military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, fearing that would dangerously inflame the region, analysts say.

Turkish officials say they are putting their country's position on the issue in line with the European Union, urging the use of diplomatic means to resolve the crisis and offering Turkey's services as a mediator between Iran and the West.

But some in Turkey are expressing concern that should there be a push for a military attack against Iran - particularly from the United States - Turkey might again find itself in a position similar to that before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, when it was forced to choose between its regional security concerns and increasing alignment with the EU's soft-diplomacy approach, and US demands for facilitating military action.

"There is an understanding between the US and Israel and Turkey on the perception that Iran may become a threat if it develops nuclear weapons. There is also a common understanding with the rest of the world that [Iranian president Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad is becoming a dangerous leader with his very provocative and aggressive statements," says political analyst and columnist Sami Kohen in Istanbul.

"As far as all that is concerned, there is common ground. But the question is how do you deal with the problems, and that's where the differences are."

But the Wilson Center's Lesser says both Turkey and the US have learned the lessons of the events preceding the Iraqi invasion, which led to severe strains between Turkey and the US after the Turkish parliament refused to allow the American military to use Turkish soil for its operations.

"I don't think the United States has any assumptions about the Turkish willingness to facilitate a strike against Iran, especially after the Iraq experience," he says.

"I think there is a lot of caution on both sides right now."

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