2006: A decisive year for the Balkans

When the EU brokered Serbia-Montenegro's constitution in 2003, it was reluctant to encourage the redrawing of more borders in the Balkans. But now officials admit that Serbia-Montenegro isn't working. The EU's concern now is that any referendum on independence - an option both Serbia and Montenegro have this year, after three years under the EU constitution - be held legally and fairly.

The EU has sent Slovak diplomat Miroslav Lajcak to negotiate between Mr. Djukanovic's pro-independence faction, which is planning a referendum for April, and the pro-Serbia opposition led by Predrag Bulatovic. They will decide on what the turnout will have to be for the referendum to be valid.

Since the end of the 1992-1995 war, Bosnia has been made up of two ethnic halves - the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Serb Republic - held together by a loose central government and three presidents.

The international community here also has a powerful role. Its head, the so-called high representative who answers to a group of mostly Western countries overseeing the peace agreement, can fire officials and impose laws.

Though the fourth and most recent high representative, Britain's Paddy Ashdown, said when he arrived nearly four years ago that his job was to put himself out of a job, he fell short of being able to create strong state institutions such as a unified police force. Bosnia's new high representative, Germany's Christian Schwarz-Schilling, says his No. 1 priority is to make sure Bosnia moves closer to the EU.

But EU officials have said that Bosnia needs a strong government that can properly negotiate agreements with the Union. US-approved efforts to convince Bosnian politicians to get rid of the three presidents and to give more power to the central government and parliament, however, broke down in mid-January.

It's still uncertain whether the parties will agree by March - the deadline for any reforms to affect October's general election - or whether the divisions will hold for another four years.

Macedonia's relative success with a 2001 power-sharing agreement that narrowly averted civil war resulted in the EU awarding the country formal candidate status in December.

Croatia will this year continue its accession talks with the EU. Croatia cleared its last stumbling block in early December with the arrest of its last war crimes suspect, Ante Gotovina, a former general indicted in 2001 for involvement in the wartime killings of Serb civilians.

Meanwhile, the EU has signaled that Serbia's failure to turn over former Bosnian Serb political and military leaders Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic is jeopardizing its chances for future membership.

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