Why Hamas is gaining in Palestinian polls

Speaking easy English and shaking the hand of male and female visitors alike, Adli Yaish is hardly the typical face of Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Rather, the new mayor of Nablus embodies a cadre of Hamas "spinoffs." Gone are the full beards and fiery religious rhetoric. Absent are assertions that all Israel is a "Zionist entity" that Muslims must destroy.

Saying they are inspired by - though not in lock step with - Hamas's militant core, politicians like Mr. Yaish have come to the fore in the group's first campaign for national representation. And when Palestinians vote in Wednesday's legislative elections, analysts say, it's Hamas's more moderate tone, as well as disillusionment with the ruling Fatah Party, that will yield the group significant gains.

At the same time, its mix of moderate and hard-line messages may complicate Israeli and US stands against dealing with Hamas, which both countries consider a terrorist organization.

Campaigning was barred Tuesday, while thousands of Palestinian security officers took up positions in the West Bank and Gaza to protect polling stations. Armed groups pledged to maintain calm during the election, but gunmen linked to Fatah killed a party leader, spurring about 1,000 supporters and activists to march in Nablus in protest of the lawlessness.

According to the latest figures from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, based in Ramallah, 42 percent of Palestinians will vote for Fatah, while 35 percent will vote for the Hamas-backed Change and Reform Party.

But it is unclear how Hamas's popularity will translate into policy. The group, which is responsible for the greatest number of suicide bombings targeting Israeli civilians, only recently became involved in municipal, let alone national, governance.

Some Palestinians say that Hamas is hoping it doesn't get a majority, preparing instead to be an opposition or second-largest power. In recent interviews, leaders have said that they will not change their charter calling for Israel's destruction. But Tuesday, Hamas leader and candidate Mahmoud Zahar said in Gaza that "negotiation is not a taboo," adding at the same time that "we do not consider the Israeli enemy as a partner or a neighbor."

To some observers, appearance of figures like Yaish suggest that Hamas may be placing itself in a more pragmatic spot on the Palestinian spectrum. Others say that Hamas has widened its umbrella by appealing to people who abide by Muslim values but are not extreme. And amid disarray within the Palestinian Authority (PA), run since 1994 by the secular Fatah faction, Hamas is gleaning much of what might be called a protest vote.

At the Arafat Sweets Shop - no relation to the late Palestinian leader - there is a popular sentiment: Throw the Bums Out, Middle Eastern-style.

"We want change. We want our leaders to be people who fear God," says Abdullah Kassem. "We were Fatah supporters," he says of his friends, "but we are demanding new faces. The PA is full of criminals and there is unbelievable lawlessness."

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