On the way to democracy in the former Soviet Union, two roads diverge

In Belarus, President Aleksandr Lukashenka signed into law on Dec. 21 legislation that would further undermine the opposition in the run-up to this year's presidential elections. The new measure makes it a crime punishable by up to two years in jail to "discredit Belarus" in the eyes of international organizations and foreign governments.

The authorities in Kazakhstan, two weeks after President Nursultan Nazarbayev won reelection on Dec. 4 with a reported 91 percent of the vote, tightened the screws by refusing to register the country's main opposition party, Authentic Ak Zhol. Repressive Uzbekistan continued its crackdown on independent assistance organizations and media. Last month, the regime refused to renew the agreement that has allowed Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty to operate a bureau in Tashkent. President Islam Karimov's militia is believed to have massacred some 500 protesters in the eastern city of Andijan last May.

Moscow, meanwhile, is constricting political space at home as it carves out a role as an enabler of autocracy in neighboring states. Restricting independent NGOs is one thing. The Kremlin is taking things one step further by creating obedient parallel bodies - "pseudo-civil society" - whose principal purpose is to toe the authorities' line. Outside Russia's borders, such bodies take the form of Moscow-backed election monitors who give their stamp of approval to the sham elections held in neighboring countries. These entities are part of what US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried describes as a "bizarre alternative universe."

Ratcheting up repression belies a basic insecurity within the leadership in these countries. This should come as no surprise for regimes not accustomed to being held accountable by their own citizens.

The sad fact remains that in much of the unreformed FSU countries, the recent onslaught of new restrictive measures, including the pending Russian NGO law, is gratuitous. Given the lack of media, legislative, and judicial independence, the leadership in these reform-starved lands is already well positioned to clamp down on whomever they deem politically undesirable.

Greater repression is not the cure for what ails these post-Soviet societies. On the contrary, what is needed is an approach that recognizes average citizens' rights and offers a path for the normalization of politics. The sooner these societies are opened, the better for everyone.

• Christopher Walker is director of studies at Freedom House.

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