Peace prospects after Sharon

The departure of Ariel Sharon from the Middle East political landscape casts a new question mark over the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, at the very time when a combination of Mr. Sharon's own ambitions and renewed US interest in tackling the conflict had lifted hope for progress.

Indeed, his hospitalization has stalled momentum among Israeli moderates - the one group that, under Sharon's leadership, might have provided significant advances toward a final settlement, analysts say.

"If they manage to show cohesion, maybe these centrist forces do actually push things ahead, but that's the only variable out there," says Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "It's not the Palestinians, and it's not the US."

In its five years, the Bush administration has been reluctant to press for bold steps from the parties, and it's unlikely to alter that pattern now, many experts say. Officially, neither the White House nor the State Department is offering much diplomatic direction for the post-Sharon era, suggesting that doing so would be distasteful as the prime minister fights for his life. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice postponed a trip to Australia in order to be in Washington at a crucial juncture in Middle East affairs, while diplomatic sources said the White House was quietly making contingency plans in the event of Sharon's passing.

But even as Secretary Rice expressed faith last week in the Israeli people's continuing desire for peace and the Palestinian people's determination to build a democracy, the trip of two US diplomats to the region to keep foundering Palestinian elections on track was postponed. Those elections are scheduled for the end of this month, but the heightened popularity of the radical group Hamas has led to speculation that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas might use some pretext, including Israel's political uncertainty, to push back the date.

Still, some observers do see potential for US leadership - if the United States so chooses - after the departure of such a dominant and unilateralist leader as Sharon. A controversial military and political leader for decades, Sharon responded skillfully to the 9/11 terrorist attacks by emphasizing the commonality of the threat the US and Israel face. In so doing, he removed virtually all daylight from between the two countries - an accomplishment that buoyed Israel's supporters in the US, but which some critics say damaged the US role as an "honest broker" in the conflict.

President Bush was not personally close to Sharon the way he has been with Britain's Tony Blair. But at the same time, Mr. Bush seemed to identify with Sharon's "peace through strength" approach and a resort to unilateral action, even when it ran counter to US policy.

Nothing groundbreaking is likely to happen in the short weeks before Israeli elections are held March 28 - weeks that will be under the stewardship of Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Israeli voters, who appeared poised to follow Sharon's vision for effectively setting the borders for both Israeli and Palestinian states, will now be sizing up potential bearers of his mantle. "I would say Ehud Olmert has an audition with the Israeli public that is significant," says Jennifer Laszlo Mizrahi, founder of the Israel Project in Washington.

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