Iraq's micro parties could play key role
Shiites and Kurds look to be the big winners of this month's vote, but tiny parties could emerge as power brokers.
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But many Iraqis, particularly Sunnis, are dismayed by the election results so far, claiming that ruling Shiites rigged the polls. Amid more than 1,000 complaints of the use of force or fraud at polling stations, the Sunni coalition as well as Mr. Allawi have demanded a new vote in some areas. Iraq's election commission has indicated that such a massive recount is unlikely, and a United Nations official said Wednesday that there is no justification for a rerun of the vote.
The Sunni alliance demanded earlier this week that the Shiite bloc hand over 10 seats to even out the playing field, but the Shiites refused. And after an election lull, Iraq is back to multiple bombings a day, while there have been several protests calling for a recount.
One problem lies in inaccurate perceptions of ethnic populations.Reliable census figures do not exist, but all three votes this year - including interim elections in January and a referendum on the constitution this fall - mirror approximately the same population breakdown. Yet many Sunnis, who have grown used to being in Iraq's ruling class, do not view themselves as a minority.
"You can't say Sunnis are a minority in this country," argues Nabeal Mohammed Younis, a Baghdad University professor and political adviser.
Mr. Younis points out that Kurds are mostly Sunni. But at the ballot box, Kurds identified first and foremost as Kurds, leaving Sunni Arabs with third-place status. Sunni Arabs are also worried that Kurds and Shiites will fight for a federal, decentralized Iraq, which would leave Sunnis with the least oil-rich region.
Younis is not optimistic that smaller parties can have much impact, given the backdrop ofviolence. "It will be very hard for them to go against the majority. The bigger parties will probably buy their votes, and if they refuse, they'll be assassinated as easy as that," he says. "You can't talk about democracy in a country where there's no security."
But others, particularly some of the country's religious minorities, believe that they do hold the power to have some significant impact on Iraq's next government. Yunadum Kana is the head of the Assyrian Democratic Movement's party, Rafideen (Two Rivers), a secular-liberal group that swept up about 85 percent of the Christian vote. Mr. Kana expects to be one of several political parties that will push for major revisions in the constitution to enhance women and minority rights, and clarify the role of Islamic religious law.
"People voted for their religious and ethnic leaders this time, but it's too bad, really. The reality is that the Iraqi people are a diverse group," Kana says. "We have to bring back the mentality that we are brothers and we are part of the country."
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