Africa wary of new border war

One hint of Mr. Meles's insecurity is his harsh response to criticism. With election-related violence plaguing the country for several months, 131 opposition figures were charged this month with treason.

Eritrea's regime, meanwhile, is one of Africa's most repressive. In a country of just 4.5 million, it has imprisoned 15 journalists - more than any other country except China and Cuba - according to a report by the Committee to Protect Journalists.

President Isaias Afwerki's government also has many internal enemies, including dozens of political dissidents who have been imprisoned. "The only way for him to stay in power is to say, 'Ethiopia is coming to get us,' " says de Waal.

Also a key reason war between the two could cause wider trouble is because Ethiopia is a major power in a tough neighborhood.

"What the region is looking for - and needs - is a power that guarantees stability through predictable behavior," says Bryden. This stability is what Ethiopia has sought to provide, and is the reason donor countries have been reluctant to press the government too hard.

But if Ethiopia continues to reject the 2002 Boundary Commission ruling, Bryden says, it will cement its reputation as acting by "might rather than right," which will "make all the neighbors worried."

Eritrea also has the capacity to stir up trouble in the region, experts warn. It financed arms for Somali Islamic extremists in the mid-1990s, de Waal says. And it has ties to Darfur rebels in Sudan, which it could encourage to stoke the war there.

Keep an eye on Chad, warn Africa experts. With its ailing and paranoid president, its expanding oil exports, and its proximity to Sudan, the desert nation is at great risk of becoming a major African flashpoint.

In the past week, Chad has accused neighboring Sudan of backing rebel groups that have launched recent attacks in eastern Chad and of trying to draw it into the fighting in Sudan's Darfur region.

Chad's ill and isolated president, Idriss Deby, is so paranoid that "he doesn't even trust his own family," says Alex de Waal, a Harvard University expert on Africa. And for good reason: Two of his cousins - top officials in the all-important oil and cotton industries - recently defected from his government. At issue is who will take over when Mr. Deby dies. Rebels, reportedly led by Army deserters who are calling for Deby to step down, are massing in the country's east.

Home to some 10 million people, Chad is one of the world's poorest nations, but also one of Africa's newest oil producers. Yet it recently pulled out of a program designed by the World Bank that aimed to ensure its oil riches would reach its people - not just enrich the elites. Now military budgets are growing.

Also, the ethnic and military ties between Chad and Darfur could mean fighting in Chad will exacerbate the ongoing conflict in Darfur.

Page: 1 | 2