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posted December 21, 2005 at 11:30 p.m.

Where's Osama bin Laden?

Many US experts believe he no longer runs Al Qaeda.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said Wednesday that he doubts Osama bin Laden is in any position to command the worldwide operations of Al Qaeda. The BBC reports that Mr. Rumsfeld told reporters on a flight to Pakistan that bin Laden could still be hiding along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but it was hard to know since the terrorist leader had not been heard from in more than a year.

"I have trouble believing he is able to operate sufficiently to be in a position of major command over a worldwide Al Qaeda operation, but I could be wrong."

Last week US Ambassador to Pakistan Ryan C. Crocker said that he didn't think bin Laden had operational control of Al Qaeda any longer. He also added that he doubts Al Qaeda's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is in any better position, saying the fact that he issues occasional video and audiotaped statements does not prove anything.


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ExpressIndia.com reported last week that Mr. Crocker also caused a controversy when he expressed concern over the involvement of " banned groups" in recent earthquake relief. Crocker said it should be a matter of concern for the Pakistan government that groups involved in violence were associated with the relief activities. He also angered some Pakistani politicians earlier this week when he seemed to criticize the former governments of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, reports DAWN, an English-language newspaper in Pakistan.

Other US experts agree with Rumsfeld and Crocker about bin Laden. StrategyPage.com, a site that covers military news from around the world, writes that Al Qaeda seems to be losing support in large parts of the Muslim world because of indiscriminate attacks on civilians in Iraq and Jordan. The site reports that many of Al Qaeda's new recruits are coming from Central Asia instead of the Arab world.

Bin-Laden may just be lying low. But his long absence from "public" appearance may also suggest that he's either extremely isolated (getting to some areas along the Afghan-Pakistani frontier could easily take months) or may be no more than a figurehead. And while there have been erroneous reports of his death in the past, it's not a possibility that should be dismissed.

The Herald-Sun of Durham, N.C., reported last week that Duke University religion professor Bruce Lawrence, who recently edited a collection of bin Laden's messages and speeches, also thinks there is a possibility that the Al Qaeda chief may be dead.

Bin Laden could have been among the tens of thousands of people killed in the October earthquakes in Pakistan's Hindu Kush, the mountainous region where he has been presumed to be holed up.
"It could have taken out his underground headquarters," Lawrence said. "The other possibility is that he's ailing. He's reportedly on dialysis. Everybody knows he requires treatment, and it's questionable whether he's able to get updated and efficient treatment. He's obviously aged quickly because of the life he's chosen or has been forced upon him since his 1996 return to Afghanistan."

Prof. Lawrence won't go as far as Crocker's statement that "Al Qaeda is in serious trouble." But he does think the organization is undergoing a leadership transition. "It's unclear who else could be the icon for global terrorism the way he is," Lawrence said. "His name has moved up into another stratosphere as the emblematic point of reference."

Finally, in a reference that ties bin Laden to the debate in Washington over President Bush's decision to allow warrant-free wiretaps of Americans, The Washington Post reports that President Bush twice mentioned his concern about leaks to newspapers by mentioning bin Laden's satellite phone.

"The fact that we were following Osama bin Laden because he was using a certain type of telephone made it into the press as the result of a leak," the president said. "And guess what happened? Saddam -- Osama bin Laden changed his behavior. He began to change how he communicated."

But the president's account is not completely correct. The story that Mr. Bush is referring to appeared in the conservative Washington Times on Aug. 21, 1998. Fairly deep in the story, a profile of bin Laden, the article stated: "He keeps in touch with the world via computers and satellite phones and has given occasional interviews to international news organizations." As the Post notes, the information in the article "does not appear to be based on any government leak and made no reference to government surveillance of bin Laden's phone."

But bin Laden did stop using the phone after the article appeared, which many security experts believe meant the US had lost its best chance to catch him.