Vote propels militant Hamas

The "bequest" of Arafat, as Palestinian observers like to call it, is a party shot through with internal rivalries, whether it be a dozen or so security wings of the PA, the far-flung militant underground of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, or the simmering feud between contemporaries of Arafat who returned to the Palestinian territories in 1994 after the Oslo peace accord and a younger cohort of homegrown leaders.

In the four rounds of municipal voting, Hamas was helped to victory because ballots were often split between multiple candidates running from Fatah. The prospect of a repeat in the parliamentary voting became likely when a faction representing Fatah's younger generation, calling themselves "The Future,"' said it would run under a separate slate.

The two groups said that they would reunite after the vote, the Associated Press reported.

"Fatah is like the Likud, they have a death wish. It's a subconscious suicidal tendency," says Shmuel Bar, a Middle East expert at the Herzlyia Interdisciplinary Center, referring to the infighting that drove the Israeli prime minister to form a new political party.

The infighting distracted Fatah from presenting a coherent message to voters, leaving Hamas with an easy anti-incumbency campaign based around promises of reform and clean government.

Although public opinion surveys show support for Hamas to range between one-fourth and one-third of the Palestinian public, analysts say that 40 percent of the legislature is a realistic goal for the Islamists and some believe that a majority could be within reach.

That has raised the prospect of a coalition government with Hamas-appointed cabinet ministers. Political observers say that Hamas would seek domestic-oriented ministries rather than portfolios that would force it to become involved in negotiations with Israel.

And yet, analysts cautioned that Hamas's popularity in municipal voting won't necessarily translate into a parliamentary victory.

"People's considerations at the local level are different than their considerations at the national level," says Khalil Shikaki, who heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. "Hamas will have a real difficult time. Hamas can only promise people more violence at a time when people don't want violence."

The pollster doubted whether Hamas would win a majority in the 132-seat legislature or even a plurality. At a time an overwhelming majority supports a continuation of the 11-month-old calm in fighting, Shikaki says most Palestinians see the economy as the most important issue, and believe that Fatah rather than Hamas is better able to improve their standard of living.

• Material from wire services was used in this article.

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