Imprisoned in Chile, Peru's Fujimori sets sights on a comeback at home

"Fujimori is so strong and so appealing, that we could all go on vacation and would still win," explains Raffo, who says he would not be working for Fujimori if he were not "100 percent convinced" of his innocence. Raffo himself is under criminal investigation, and is not allowed to leave the country to visit his boss in Chile, which makes, he admits, coordination for a victory all the more complicated.

A survey by independent polling firm Apoyo last month shows that 70 percent of Peruvians believe Fujimori is guilty of corruption and human rights abuses and 60 percent don't think he should be allowed to run in April. And yet, if he were to run, he would more than likely reach the second round. Eighteen percent of respondents said they would vote for Fujimori, making him the second most favored candidate, behind front-runner Lourdes Flores from the rightist National Union (UN), who received 21 percent approval.

These sort of contradictory statistics can only be explained, says IDL's de la Jara, by understanding average Peruvians' disappointment with President Toledo. A one-time shoe-shine boy turned Stanford PhD, Toledo came to power in 2001 riding an anti-Fujimori wave with 53 percent approval ratings - but today is stumbling to the end of his term with support falling into the single digits.

This vote of anger, say observers, is worrying, no matter how it affects Fujimori's candidacy.

In fact, pundits like Carlos Basombrio Iglesias, a political columnist for the daily Peru 21 say that the main beneficiary of this voter desperation will not be the ex-president, but rather another candidate, Ollanta Humala, a former army officer who heads a nationalist movement and is gaining rapidly in the polls, especially among Indian and mixed-race Peruvians, a strong part of Fujimori's base. "There are now new worrying outsiders at the door," says Basombrio. "Fujimori is an old story ... or at least he should be."

Former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori's appearance in Chile last month was the last thing Chile-Peru relations needed.

Tension has smoldered between the two nations since the 1879-84 War of the Pacific when Chile seized a swath of Peru's mineral-rich southern coast. The latest source of friction is a Peruvian law signed by President Alejandro Toledo last month claiming ownership of a part of the Pacific Ocean teeming with anchovy - a major Peruvian export. Peru plans to take its case to the UN's International Court. A decision from the court could take, according to Peru's foreign ministry, six years.

In response, just days before Mr. Fujimori arrived in Santiago, Chile indefinitely suspended talks with Peru on deepening bilateral trade. This was the second time the talks were suspended this year. In April, Peru called them off to protest a Chilean airline's in-flight video that showed dirty streets and crime in Lima.

Fujimori spokesman Carlos Raffo denies the ex-president was banking on all this bad blood in the hopes of getting a more sympathetic hearing in Chile. Fujimori went to Chile, he says, because its courts are the most honest. "In Ecuador the justice system is just like Peru's - terrible," says Mr. Raffo. "And look at Brazil, they speak Portuguese there, so that's impossible. Chile was the obvious choice."

The fact that Chile is known to demand extensive evidence for extradition requests while Peru's judiciary is known for being weak and unprepared might well have played a part in Fujimori's calculations too. Peru has had serious difficulties mounting cases against figures from Fujimori's scandal-plagued government. Chile, in turn, has declined to extradite four Peruvians whom prosecutors here call notorious criminals associated with Fujimori.

The Peruvian government officially has until Jan. 6, to request Fujimori's extradition, and then the Chilean Supreme Court will examine this request, basing its decision on whether there is a reason to suspect Fujimori was involved in the crimes. If the Chilean court decides there are no grounds for extradition, doubt might be thrown on the legitimacy of Peru's claims about Fujimori, easing the ex-president's way to running for office here again.

Both countries have sought in recent weeks to downplay the fragility of the situation. Asked about Fujimori's impact on the trade dispute with Chile, Peru's trade minister Alfredo Ferrero angrily told reporters last month: "I don't think it advisable ... that the nation's agenda be Fujimorized."

• Ms. Harman is Latin America correspondent for the Monitor and USA Today.

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