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posted December 14, 2005 at 11:30 a.m.

US, British troop reductions may begin after Thursday elections

But Talabani says Iraq won't be able to talk about complete US withdrawal until end of 2006.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

The top US military commander in Iraq will assess the situation in the country after Thursday's elections and decide how many troops need to remain. Marine Corps Times reports, however, that the Pentagon is being careful to " manage expectations" about any troop withdrawal, saying that the commander, Gen. George Casey, may not recommend that any troops be withdrawn.

"I believe he will be back and make an assessment on where we are," [Pentagon spokesman Larry Di Rita] told reporters in his office. "I don't know – I simply don't – whether that will include his recommendation on the way ahead." Casey's assessment and possible recommendation on troop levels would be for an undetermined period of time, but perhaps not as long as a year.

The Marine Corps Times notes that the Army plans to get back to a baseline 138,000 troops in Iraq, but how much the number may be reduced beyond that, if it is reduced at all, is unknown. It is also unclear if the Army will cancel the planned deployment of a brigade to the country. The 1st Armored Division, normally based in Germany, is currently stationed in Kuwait awaiting orders to deploy to Iraq. A military spokesman said a number of different scenarios is being considered.


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The Times of London reported Tuesday that American and British troops could begin withdrawing troops from Iraq as soon as a permanent government is installed in Baghdad after this week's elections.

"One of the first things we will talk about (with the new Iraqi government) is the phased transfer of security, particularly in cities and provinces," the newspaper quoted a senior Western diplomat in Baghdad as saying. "It will happen progressively over the next year."

The Times also reported that the US is "planning to pull out 30,000 [troops] by the new year" and reduce their presence to below 100,000 personnel "in the coming months," without giving a source.

The Evening Standard of London reports that the pull-out of British troops could begin in about six months, with British forces withdrawing from the Iraqi provinces of Mathuna and Misa as early as spring.

[Major General Jim Dutton, the commanding officer of the multinational division based in Basra] told BBC2's Newsnight: "We wish to get out of this country as soon as possible when we have put in place the conditions that allow the Iraqis to continue to develop. If that is in the middle of '06 in those two provinces then that would be good. Certainly we are aiming to do it as soon as possible.
"So let me just say that is not an unrealistic timescale. Given what I know today and what I think is going to happen, six months is not an unrealistic timescale to start talking about withdraw of troops from some areas."

But almost as soon as the story appeared in The Times, Agence France-Presse reports that the British Defense Ministry denied that it has any fixed dates for a troop pullout from Iraq.

We're not going to set dates," a spokesman told AFP, reiterating that the process of handing over security duties to Iraqi forces could begin in 2006. "It's all about conditions being met, and real progress on the ground.
"We will be looking at each province one by one and also at the bigger picture of Iraq. We'll look at it and we will consider when the conditions are right to achieve a hand-over," he added.

The Scotsman reported Tuesday that Iraq's Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari warned that a hasty withdrawal of US and British troops could lead to even greater violence in his country.

"Those who advocate an early withdrawal do not know what is at stake. The huge investment in blood and money sacrificed by the US could be squandered. There would be regional interventions by neighboring countries and others. The fate of this country and the whole region could be endangered."

And the Daily Times of Pakistan reported Tuesday that Iraq President Jalal Talabani told a German TV station that Iraq would be ready to agree a timetable for the reduction of US-led coalition forces in the country by the end of 2006. By that time, he said, Iraqi security forces will be ready to take over from US forces.

An ABCNews-Time magazine poll released Monday shows most Iraqis disapprove of the presence of US forces in their country, yet they are optimistic about Iraq's future and their own personal lives.