Canadians face bitter vote
The winter election - the first in 26 years - will feature mud as much as snow.
Canadians are bracing for a bitter winter election after a coalition of Conservatives, Quebec separatists, and far-left progressives toppled the scandal-plagued Liberal government with a no-confidence vote on Monday night.
Opposition leaders pushed for the Jan. 23 election, hoping to capitalize on a corruption scandal that has shaken public confidence in the Liberal Party that has ruled since 1993. Prime Minister Paul Martin and the Liberals, meanwhile, will try to persuade voters that Conservatives and their leader Stephen Harper are too right-wing for Canada.
The election contours are unlikely to expose major rifts in policy, given that Canada's economy is strong and few issues have become major rallying cries. Rather, candidates are girding for mud-slinging and personal attacks that could - along with the snow, ice, and subzero temperatures of the first winter campaign in 26 years - drive down turnout.
"The subterranean issues are really about leadership," says Robert Young, a political science professor at the University of Western Ontario. "That's where the gloves will come off."
Neither party is poised to claim an outright majority in Parliament. Liberals lost their majority in the last election, 17 months ago. The most likely result this time is another minority government, in which the ruling party has a plurality but not a majority of seats.
The Liberals have a slight edge now, according to several polls. The Ipsos-Reid poll, taken just after the no-confidence vote, found that Conservatives and Liberals were in a dead heat - 31 percent support for each, with a 3 percentage point margin of error.
"It really is too close to call," says Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid Public Affairs polling in Toronto. "People don't want to vote for the Liberals, but the problem is whether or not people are willing to accept Stephen Harper as an alternative."
Harper's Conservative Party favors lower taxes and a more decentralized government, and has criticized the Liberals' spending. The Tories, as they're also known, generally oppose same-sex marriage (which is legal in Canada) and are more conservative on social issues. However, the Canadian Conservatives' support for child-care subsidies and the public healthcare system put them to the left of US Republicans.
Although a minority Conservative government wouldn't have enough support to push through sweeping changes, Mr. Young says Canadians would definitely notice a difference. For example, Conservatives could team up with the Bloc Quebecois to decentralize Canadian government, something both parties support.
"There could be very substantial changes even with a conservative minority," Young says.
So far, however, Harper's pitch has been focused on the ethics of the ruling party.
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