Israeli right: purists vs. pragmatists

Several powerful figures in the Likud have already announced their plans to run for the leadership of the party in upcoming primaries, allowing them to take on Sharon on March 28. These include former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as Shaul Mofaz, a popular former army chief and defense minister.

Mr. Netanyahu has taken to calling Sharon a "dictator" who doesn't understand democracy, as well as a member of a "crime family," a shot at the recent conviction of one of Sharon's sons, Omri, on charges of illegal political fundraising.

Further to the right along the Likud spectrum is Uzi Landau, who has an active following with settlers angry over Sharon's withdrawal this August from the Gaza Strip and part of the northern West Bank.

Mr. Landau promises to portray Sharon - who famously said that a Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip was as important to him as Tel Aviv - as a man who says one thing and does another.

Also throwing his hat in the ring is foreign minister Silvan Shalom. Mr. Shalom, who has been rejuvenating ties with moderate Arab states in the afterglow of the disengagement plan, declared his candidacy on Tuesday saying, "Only I can stop the collapse of the Likud."

One of the former military leaders who could shake Sharon on his own turf is Mr. Mofaz, who was a popular chief-of-staff of the Israel Defense Forces, and is now serving as defense minister. After Sharon's decision to get out, Mofaz announced that he will seek the Likud party leadership.

Mofaz, who is Iranian-born and Israeli-bred, also presents a formidable challenge to the new Labor Party leader, Amir Peretz, a native Moroccan who is predicted to have appeal among the Sephardim - the more than half of the Israeli public whose families hail from Spain and countries throughout the Muslim world.

Yet another ethnic card being played is the Russian one. Israel's foremost politician from the former Soviet Union, Avigdor Lieberman, is a hawk whose right-wing party makes an attractive coalition candidate. He may draw away conservative votes that might otherwise go to Likud or to Sharon's new party, called

Israel's far right, meanwhile, can expect to harden in its core beliefs, but will likely become increasingly marginalized.

Amid the political sand-shifting, two right-wing parties - the National Union and the National Religious Party - discussed merging to form a more solidly ideological group with Orthodox values, one that would distinguish itself from the Likud, which is primarily a secular party.

"For those who don't trust Likud because of disengagement, a party merger like this could win a lot of people," says Professor Sandler. But longtime supporters may feel that they have to come to the rescue of the ailing Likud, and so the splintering party could still win back voters.

"What we see is that as elections come closer, people start returning to their original homes. Likud is still a brand name - it's too early to write it off," says Sandler.

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