How should US prepare for a post-Castro Cuba?

From the Bay of Pigs to poison cigars, American attempts to rid the world of Fidel Castro have repeatedly been met with embarrassment and failure.

After 46 years, Mr. Castro's wheezing revolution has even outlived his cold-war ally, the once-mighty Soviet Union.

Now, amid reports of Castro's fragile health and conflicting expectations about the shape of a post-Castro Cuba, the US government is facing a choice about how aggressively it should press for democratic reforms in Havana after Castro's reign. Top Cuban officials, for their part, are reacting with alarm and bracing for a possible new round of American meddling.

Those in favor of taking bold action - namely, trying to stop Raul Castro from stepping into his brother's shoes - cite post-9/11 concerns that any failing or hostile nation may become a launching pad for terrorists seeking to attack the United States.

Those urging a more restrained approach stress Washington's less-than-impressive record in Cuba. Some point to the deadly insurgency in Iraq two years after what Bush administration officials had assumed would be a quick US military victory.

Many Cuba experts say Iraq and Cuba are completely separate scenarios, noting that political instability in Cuba is unlikely to result in the kind of protracted rebellion under way in Iraq.

But others say the same kind of flawed planning that caused Washington to fixate on Saddam Hussein's removal at the expense of other strategic imperatives is at play in US plans for Cuba after Castro.

"This is the same thinking that has led us astray before, and now in Iraq," says Damian Fernandez, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University here.

"A policy that is only defined based on the personality of Fidel Castro or [his brother] Raul Castro is misguided," he says. "It blinds us to real concerns that will affect US national interests and the future of Cuba."

The Bush administration has developed a 400-page plan for how to confront the challenges of post-Castro Cuba. In August, it appointed a Cuba "transition coordinator" at the State Department to carry out the plan.

The post-Castro plan addresses everything from water quality to drafting a new constitution to how best to punish Castro's foreign allies. But what has made the plan most controversial is its focus on proactively subverting efforts by Castro to transfer power to his brother, Raul.

"The Castro dictatorship is pursuing every means at its disposal to survive and perpetuate itself through a 'succession strategy,' " the plan says. "US policy must be targeted at undermining this succession strategy."

The plan is consistent with requirements of the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which bars US assistance to any Cuban government that includes Fidel or Raul Castro. But it carries the requirement one step further by calling for direct action "hastening Cuba's transition" toward democracy.

Page: 1 | 2