Bush in Asia: friendly turf

China's leaders "know they have to talk about the trade deficit and the revaluation of the yuan," he says. "They know they have to listen to Bush on human rights - but they won't discuss it with him."

The US and China are also likely to seal a deal on expanded military exchanges that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has been discussing with Chinese officials over recent weeks.

Bush is unlikely to come down too hard on the Chinese on economic issues or to take the same aggressive pro-democracy approach he is applying in the Middle East for one overarching reason, experts say: China is a world power with a veto on the United Nations Security Council.

Bush wants to foster cooperation from Beijing on several key international issues, including Iran and North Korea's nuclear programs, and Syria's influence in Lebanon and Iraq.

AEI's Mr. Blumenthal says he expects to see the White House take a two-pronged approach to China: public pressure on economic issues coupled with behind-closed-doors urging to improve democracy and human rights.

Bush is set to give a major speech on democracy in Kyoto, Japan, Wednesday in which he is expected to emphasize the benefits that democratic reforms would bring to the Chinese people.

"But once in China, the practice has been and will continue to be more private prodding on democracy and human rights - something unlike what we've seen in other countries" where Bush has taken his democratization agenda, Blumenthal says.

Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, the former US trade representative, recently took advantage of several days of talks with Chinese officials to criticize the country's communist political system.

The president may mention religious freedoms in public as a gesture to his political base, but Blumenthal says the greater pressure will come on the economic issues.

Earlier this month Washington pressured Beijing into accepting limits on its export to the US of certain textiles, and Congress would like to see more.

Bush is under a certain amount of bipartisan pressure to raise the threat of trade sanctions if China does not allow a further revaluation of its currency.

One reason Bush can expect relatively calm waters over much of his trip is that APEC is an organization focused on economic issues, an area where participating governments largely agree.

But Blumenthal notes that Bush is likely to move somewhat outside that box in bilateral meetings he has set with the president of Indonesia and the prime minister of Malaysia in the margins of the APEC meeting.

"Bush will take up the question of Islam and democracy when he meets with those two leaders," Blumenthal says, "so that's a bit of a switch."

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