The Iraqi role in Jordan bombing

Mr. Jenkins says until now Iraq has been a "net importer of jihadists" - drawing extremist sympathizers from other Muslim nations. But he worries the attacks in Jordan indicate Iraq will eventually become a net exporter of terrorists. That will have an impact on the jihadist movement worldwide, but particularly on countries like Jordan that are adjacent to Iraq and allied with the US, he says.

Jordan was a target for at least three related reasons. It's not only one of America's staunchest allies in the region but it has a peace agreement with Israel, and King Abdullah presides over a resolutely secular state that has dealt ruthlessly with domestic Islamist opposition for decades.

Zarqawi, a native of Jordan, spent much of the 1990s in jail for militant activity and fled into exile after a royal amnesty in 1998. His hatred for Jordan's regime is pronounced - as it is for states like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, all of whom Al Qaeda's sympathizers view as despotic and corrupt.

His Al Qaeda in Iraq has put out at least three statements since the blast that helped investigators track down Rishawi, since they mention four bombers, one a husband and wife team. But the Jordanians had only identified three suicide attackers. Zarqawi's organization apparently had no way of knowing one of the bombers failed.

Zarqawi, who lived in exile in Afghanistan before moving to Anbar Province after the US invasion, has always wanted to hit Jordan, and the invasion gave him the chance to come home again, says Evan Kohlmann, an Al Qaeda expert and author.

"Look at his success rate. He had succeeded in killing one US diplomat, just one, before the Iraq war," says Mr. Kohlmann referring to Lawrence Foley, who was murdered at his home in 2002. "Why is he successful now? Because he has an entire team of suicide bombers ready and waiting" in Iraq.

Last August Zarqawi's group took credit for a failed rocket attack on two US warships in the Jordanian port of Aqaba, and said the operatives and weapons in that case also came from Iraq.

Kohlmann points out, it's useful to be close to your strongest recruiting pool. "What's been effective for Zarqawi has been recruiting Sunni Arabs - Iraqi, Saudi, Jordanian, North African. These are the people who have been proven to be the most destructive, capable, and driven fighters," he says.

M.J. Gohel, the president of the Asia Pacific Foundation, a think tank that tracks militant groups, says that while the war in Iraq "certainly hasn't helped," the long-term presence of militant sympathizers inside Jordan should not be discounted. "It really was only a matter of time, given that terrorists have a support base inside the country, the entire network can be recruited locally."

• Staff writer Alexandra Marks contributed to this report from New York.

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