Schwarzenegger stakes political future

"There are large national movements afoot about redistricting and union dues that are looking to this referendum ... for momentum," says Steven Schier, a political scientist in Carleton College in Minnesota. "If either measure wins or loses, it will have dramatic consequences for whether these national movements move ahead or get stopped in their tracks."

Recent public opinion polls show uneven support for Schwarzenegger's four proposals (see chart, right).

Even the special election itself has triggered a backlash from some voters and interest groups. More than 50 percent of voters think the election is a bad idea, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. With the state facing a $6 billion to $10 billion deficit, many object to the election's high cost, projected to be about $55 million. Union groups and Democrats have urged citizens to vote "no" on all four measures to reject what they call a Schwarzenegger power grab.

It didn't start that way for the actor-turned-governor who came into office two years ago with soaring popularity. But he sidelined Democratic state lawmakers and alienated them by appealing directly to voters, most notably for a $14 billion bond provision that kept the government operating.

"He has treated the legislature as if they are an unnecessary burden on his agenda, and adopted the frat boy tactic of publicly humiliating people by calling them 'girlie men,' " says Rose Ann DeMoro, executive director of the California Nurses Association (CNA).

Schwarzenegger's approval ratings, once as high as 69 percent, have plummeted to 40 percent, according to polls.

His critics attribute his decline in the polls to alienating the CNA; he pushed to raise the patient-to-nurse ratio, changing the decade-in-the-making law. He also angered teachers by borrowing $2 billion from the state treasury, allocated to their budget. Firefighters, too, took issue with his attempt to procure widows' pensions.

Public-employee unions have hammered Schwarzenegger for taking millions in political donations from utilities, HMOs, drug companies, and other corporations.

A perception that the governor has become a "Manchurian candidate" propped up by the deep pockets of corporations may be what has hurt his standing with voters, political analysts say.

"Voters who once bought his story that he came to rebuild California by fighting special interests now feel deceived," says Larry Berg, founding director of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics at University of Southern California here.

In recent weeks, Schwarzenegger has fought back via town-hall meetings and TV ads. In one, the actor-turned-politician says, "I've had a lot to learn, and sometimes I learned the hard way. But my heart is in this, and I want to do right by you."

Yes No Undecided

Prop. 74 49% 50% 2%
Limits public school teacher tenure

Prop. 75 50% 49% 2%
Restricts union dues for political campaigns

Prop. 76 49% 49% 2%
Caps state spending

Prop. 77 44% 53% 3%
Removes redistricting duties from legislators

Source: Survey USA (Oct. 29-31)

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