Tougher international line on Syria

The Bush administration's goal in Syria is a familiar one: regime change.

But unlike in the cases of Afghanistan and Iraq, this time the US goal might be called "regime change lite." The objective, at least for now, is to change the nature of the regime in power in Damascus without necessarily forcing removal of the man in charge.

A diplomatic offensive at the United Nations Security Council includes a meeting of foreign ministers Monday that the US hopes will adopt a tough new resolution on Syria. It's the clearest sign that, for right now, the administration is willing to define "regime change" differently if the result is modification of Syria's behavior.

Most immediately, the US is joining partners Britain and France to demand Syria's cooperation in the international investigation of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri earlier this year. Several key Syrian figures have been accused by the UN investigation of organizing the plot.

But the broader changes that the United States wants to see include an end to Syria's hold on Lebanon, a closing of Syria's borders to Islamist extremists headed for Iraq, and an end to Syrian support for Palestinian radicals. In short, the changes would amount to a recasting of the regime on the order of, some analysts say, the conversion undertaken by Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi.

Still, it's not an approach that everyone is convinced can work to American satisfaction.

"Right now the administration is more focused on what might be called policy change in Syria than on actual regime change," says James Phillips, a Middle East expert with the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

"It's a strategy that requires some very big, and I'd say survival-threatening, changes in the regime to be a success," he adds. "I'm very pessimistic that the Syrian leopard can change its spots."

The administration's Syria strategy reflects the challenges that the US military is experiencing in Iraq and what President Bush calls a time for diplomacy. As part of a larger shift after the Iraq invasion, the strategy includes more nuance and patience developed in cooperation with, rather than in opposition to, the international community.

The resolution being sought by the US, France, and Britain threatens Syria with economic sanctions if it does not cooperate fully with the investigation of the Hariri assassination.

An interim report from the investigation, reviewed by the Security Council last week, implicates top Syrian officials in the massive car bombing in Beirut last February that killed Mr. Hariri and 22 others. The report by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, the lead investigator in the UN probe, implicates the brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as well as his brother-in-law, who heads military intelligence and is considered the regime's second most powerful.

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