Strongmen to score big in Afghan vote

As final tallies are being certified, the picture emerging of Afghanistan's first ever fully elected parliament is one dominated by regional strongmen and their allies - men who have ruled this country by gun, rather than the laws they are now charged with crafting.

Afghan officials said this week that the new parliament will likely hold its first session in early December. Only 12 of 34 provinces have had their final results from the Sept. 18 vote certified, but the remainder are expected to be completed shortly.

In the absence of well-defined political parties, it remains to be seen what common agenda will be forged by the 249 new members of the lower house, called the Wolesi Jirga. Preliminary results show 68 women winning seats, the number set aside for them under the law.

But the largest bloc of new parliamentarians, accounting for more than 60 percent, according to the Independent Human Rights Commission (IHRC) in Kabul, are those suspected of having links to armed groups. Observers fear that these militias will become more difficult to disarm once they gain the prestige and power of elected office.

However, some are optimistic that regional strongmen who relocate to Kabul to join the parliament will lose some of their regional power base, and more importantly, will choose to work within the confines of the new government.

"Yes, the bad guys did get in. Yes, there were a lot of irregularities. But this is about the process," says Roxanna Shapour, an analyst with the Afghan Reconstruction and Evaluation Unit in Kabul. "This is about people participating in democracy. It doesn't happen overnight. What's important is people experiencing the right to vote."

But others, including some of the new parliamentarians themselves, are less sanguine.

Safia Sidiqi, who has been elected to represent Nangrahar Province, expects it to be difficult to work alongside some of her new colleagues. "They think they are the commanders of yesterday," she says. "I think some of them have 'candidated' themselves to legalize their situation, to wipe away their past crimes, and to clean their money."

By law, these commanders should have been disarmed months ago. And anyone having ties with militia groups should have been disqualified as a parliamentary candidate. But it is widely accepted among foreign observers and Afghans that many local warlords and their commanders are still armed and wield great influence upon their communities and regions.

Allegations of commanders intimidating voters, buying votes, and stuffing ballot boxes have led to almost daily protests in regional capitals and in Kabul. Election officials have sacked 50 of their own for fraud, and have thrown out what they believe are 680 spoiled ballot boxes.

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