Muted hopes for next Iraqi vote

The constitution that Iraqis will vote on in a referendum Saturday is proving to be more divisive than unifying.

Shiites and Kurds are using the document to press for autonomous regions. Many Sunnis are planning to vote "no." As a result, many Iraqi political leaders and groups - and some US officials - are already looking beyond the constitutional referendum to elections for a permanent government, slated for December. Their hope is that the election can begin to do what the constitutional process has not: diminish sectarian violence and deliver more stability.

The constitution hasn't helped to calm Iraq in part because the document remains vague and unfinished - and so has not resolved competing visions for the country's future. Those include proposals for powerful autonomous regions that, experts say, would probably lead to a dismembered Iraq.

With acrimony deepening among Iraq's principal communities, elections for a new government may offer the best chance for delivering a representative government - including the estranged Sunnis - and quelling the violence.

"We can all see the ethnic and sectarian identities taking root and growing, with the real potential for dismemberment that this direction implies," says Phebe Marr, a senior fellow at the US Institute of Peace in Washington specializing in Iraq's future.

"The hopeful scenario now," she adds, "is that because the constitution has all these very crucial blanks to fill, maybe that allows for getting past the December elections to a government more reflective of Iraq's complexities, and with Sunni representation, to produce a better governing instrument."

Recent controversies suggest how the constitution and the referendum process have torn Iraqis farther apart, as each faction sought to concentrate its power.

Last week feuding Shiite and Kurdish forces came together long enough to try to change the rules for the Oct. 15 referendum: Their revision would have made it all but impossible for the referendum to fail. Only after vehement protest from the United Nations, which is overseeing Saturday's vote, did the interim legislature reinstate the rule that the constitution can be rejected by a two-thirds "no" vote in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces.

US military leaders have recently expressed uneasiness over the rising discord in Iraq. Increasingly, they cite political, not military, actions as the solution to Iraq's violence.

"We've looked for the constitution to be a national pact, and the perception now is that it's not," Gen. George Casey, commander of US forces in Iraq, said in testimony on Capitol Hill last month.

Then last week Gen. John Abizaid, head of the Central Command, said on CBS, "Whether or not the constitution fails in the referendum should not necessarily concern us. What should," he added, "is whether or not the Sunni Arab community in Iraq participates in the referendum politically and in the upcoming governmental elections."

A rejection of the constitution would upset the schedule for elections. But five days out from the referendum, most observers expect a "yes" vote, with the majority Shiite and Kurdish populations supporting the constitution and others divided.

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