A turn inward for US, Europe

Indeed, Iran tops many observers' list of countries that may seek to exploit the West's troubles. Last week Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, used his first trip to the US (attending the UN summit in New York) to grill the US and the West in general for what he called hypocritical treatment of the developing world. He also spoke repeatedly of Katrina, expressing sympathy for the victims while emphasizing what he called America's disappointing response - and using natural disasters to tout Muslim solidarity.

"He was really crying crocodile tears," says Mr. Moïsi. "For those in the world for whom the similarity between Baghdad and New Orleans is obvious, he was emphasizing the incompetence of the administration," he says. "But there was also a subliminal message" for Americans, he adds: " 'You have other problems to worry about than the Iranian nuclear program.' "

Much has been made of the huge cost of post-Katrina recovery and the impact that will have on other expensive projects, such as the Iraq war and reconstruction. Even administration officials are saying privately that the days of huge supplemental spending for Iraq are over.

But budgetary considerations are only part of what's behind the Bush administration's recasting of priorities, some experts say. "It's not just a question of resources, it's a problem of Bush's waning political capital," says Charles Kupchan, a foreign-policy specialist at Georgetown University in Washington.

Mr. Kupchan says he is not so much concerned that the US will back away from "current levels of engagement" in international counterterrorism, nonproliferation efforts, or the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. "Where I can see a consequential vacuum is in proactive engagement" in new issues coming up, he says.

He notes, for example, that final-status negotiations on Kosovo are to be set for later this year, "but Kosovo and the Balkans have fallen off the US radar screen."

Of course other international players will seek to fill the void, experts say, both to further their own political and economic aims and to take advantage of a stage less dominated by America. China is cited as the prime example. "People will try to balance off against the superpower, especially a distracted one, and we see the Chinese doing that all around Asia, in Latin America," and in Africa, says Korb of the Center for American Progress.

And one Bush thrust that others are sure to seek to counterbalance is his emphasis on the global spread of democracy. "The more the West seems paralyzed in its democratic behavior, the more the non-West, and in particular the nondemocratic non-West, can seem attractive," says Moïsi.

That is why Moïsi and Korb emphasize what they see as both America's and Europe's opportunity to demonstrate, even as they resolve domestic crises, the utility of diplomatic "soft power" and the strengths of the democratic system. "There are opportunities to be seized," Korb says. "But what this boils down to is the beginning of the end of a unipolar moment."

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