New Al Qaeda tape hints at frustration

Azam chastises European leaders for "arrogantly dismissing" a bin Laden truce offer "with the false claim that, 'We don't negotiate with terrorists, and that in any case, Al Qaeda has no demands to meet.' "

For O'Hanlon, the expectation that a group can go around the world "targeting innocent people, and then expect those same people to see the rightness of its cause is just absurd thinking." What that suggests to him, is that "Osama bin Laden is not the mastermind of hearts-and-minds warfare that he is often portrayed to be."

Others say the frustration expressed in the tape probably reflects more than anything the reality of an Al Qaeda that is unable, four years after Sept. 11, to mount a terrorist action in the US at will.

"Had the terrorists had any residual ability to strike in the US they would have done it in the wake of Katrina and with the 9/11 anniversary, but all they could do was make a tape," says Ralph Peters, a retired Army intelligence office and terrorism expert.

The real source of frustration for the Al Qaeda leadership, Mr. Peters says, is that "9/11 has backfired horribly on them. What's infuriating them is that they have failed to gain traction in the Muslim regions where they thought they would."

Just back from a swing through east Africa, Peters says he saw repeated signs of Al Qaeda's failure to raise anything beyond occasional individual interest.

"Since 9/11, Al Qaeda has not been able to excite a mass international movement," Peters says. "Their frustration, despite their occasional success at mounting a dramatic operation or inspiring other groups to do one, is that no matter what they do, on the broader scale they are unable to make progress."

US authorities believe Azam is the nom du guerre of Adam Gadahn, a California native and Muslim convert believed to have joined Al Qaeda. He was the front man on an earlier As-Sahab video released just days before the 2004 US presidential elections that warned of colossal terrorist attacks.

The latest video disputes speculation in the West about the role of Al Qaeda tapes. "The numerous audio and video tapes issued by ... leaders of the jihad have not been released merely to dispel rumors of their deaths, or, as the Americans once ridiculously claimed, to send coded messages to their followers," says Azam. "No, these communiqués have been released to explain and propound the nature and goals of the worldwide jihad against America and the crusaders and to convey our legitimate demands to friend and foe alike."

The tape was delivered to an ABC producer in Islamabad, Pakistan on Sept. 10 by a courier who would not identify himself. It was the second time a courier delivered an As-Sahab release to the US network.

• Reporter Gretchen Peters is also ABC's producer in Pakistan.

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