Terrorist activity on the rise in SE Asia

Government officials throughout much of southeast Asia are predicting possible terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists over the next two months.

The Al Qaeda-linked southeast Asian terror group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) "is sharing bomb-making expertise with Muslim militants in the Philippines," reports The Associated Press (AP).

AP cites Philippine government reports as stating that JI has provided "at least nine explosive designs and eight chemical recipes to help ragtag insurgents become more lethal."

The results: 116 people killed in the country's worst terror attack, a series of high-tech explosions and close cooperation among local and foreign militants using the southern Philippines as a training ground following the loss of Al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan.

While US-backed offensives have overrun established camps in the Mindanao region in the last couple of years, training by [JI's] Indonesian operatives has continued on a limited basis with militants setting up classes and plotting attacks, police and military intelligence officers told The Associated Press.

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This is significant, because – as AP points out – many Philippine militants previously had relied on "simple hand and rocket-propelled grenades to attack civilian targets."

On Monday, a senior official warned of a possible major attack in the Filipino capital, Manila, following a ferry bombing that injured 30 people Sunday.

"Terrorist attacks ... normally come in cycles, and it's unfortunate that we are in that cycle again," National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales said on television. "Sometime this month and next month, we are anticipating a major terrorist attack and most likely in Manila."

There is a serious plan to do something in the Philippines. Funding is continuing. We cannot exactly pinpoint how it is coming into the Philippines but we know that those plotting major terrorist attacks in the Philippines have regularly been funded.

Mr. Gonzales said the alleged entry of 10 suicide bombers from Indonesia, influx of foreign funds for a terrorist action, and the discovery of some 600 kilograms of explosives early this year are a few of the factors that point to another terrorist attack, reports ABS-CBN News of the Philippines.

Senior French terrorism investigator Jean-Louis Bruguiere told the Financial Times in an interview published last week that planning for a terror attack on one of Asia's financial centers may be in the works. The list of possible targets includes Tokyo, Sydney and Singapore.

An editorial in The Japan Times says it would be a "mistake" to overreact to the warning. The editorial points out that the country is already a target of Islamist extremism.

These reports are a reminder of the new security environment in which we now live and a call for vigilance, but they must not be allowed to dominate the lives of ordinary citizens. If that happens it would signify a victory for the terrorists.

Meanwhile, The Sydney Morning Herald reports that "an Islamic separatist group says it is having secret talks with the Thai Government to resolve the insurgency in the country's Muslim-majority south, days after the parliament rubber-stamped sweeping emergency powers to deal with the problem."

The Government spent four days last week in closed-door sessions with the Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) in Lausanne, Switzerland, according to a spokesman for the group. Thai military officials in the south would not comment on whether the talks took place. The organisation, known as PULO, which says it is fighting to reclaim a land for Muslims in southern Thailand, has denied ties to Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiah and said it rejected the use of suicide bombings.

Thailand denies participating in any secret talks with Pulo.

Indonesian President Susilo Yudhoyono on Monday predicted an increase of terrorist activities in the region. He warned of possible attacks in September or October, calling them "special months for terrorism," and ordered security forces to step up surveillance.

"[Australia's] Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) has issued a more detailed warning to Australians in Indonesia amid mounting concern of a terrorist attack," reports the Australian daily The Age. DFAT advised Australians to defer non-essential travel to Indonesia.

We continue to receive a stream of credible reporting suggesting that terrorists are in the advanced stages of planning attacks against western interests in Indonesia," the reviewed DFAT warning said. Attacks could occur at any time, anywhere in Indonesia and could be directed at any locations known to be frequented by foreigners.

The Christian Science Monitor reports that "the ability of [JI] ... to execute attacks in the region has been greatly sapped by hundreds of arrests since 2002." But the Monitor report points out that "JI's deadliest bombmakers are still at large in Indonesia and continue to plot attacks against Western targets there."

Even as the group appears paralyzed, informal personal networks are emerging to provide new sources of recruiting, training, and fundraising. Other extremist groups are also stepping up. And the overriding ideological glue for extremism here - a desire for a pan-Islamic state in Southeast Asia - has not gone away. ... What lies ahead is a long-term ideological contest to win over disaffected Muslims drawn to extremism.

Also...
• List of key terror attacks in Philippines ( AP)
• A resurgence of PULO is unlikely ( The Nation, Thailand)
• Muslim threat to Bangkok, tourism ( The Age, Australia)
• South Thailand: Behind the bombs ( BBC)
• Pakistani leader could be censured for speaking at Jewish conference ( The Associated Press)

• Feedback appreciated. E-mail Matthew Clark .