Base closings hint at new air strategy

"Air Force leaders want to use the base- closure process as a way of reorganizing the reserves, especially the Air National Guard, so that it is better postured to support the regular Air Force in overseas missions," says military analyst Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va. "They feel they must take steps to make the Air National Guard more efficient and relevant to national needs, because budgets are not growing but missions' needs are."

The Pentagon sees all this in terms of force projection necessary as long as the US bears responsibility for keeping an eye on the "global commons." But elected officials view the sought-for changes in terms of lost jobs and more.

Under the Pentagon's plan, five states - Connecticut, Delaware, Montana, Nevada, and North Dakota - would lose all their aircraft. Regional air defenses against terrorist and other attacks are at stake, as well as the ability of governors to use Air Guard units to fight forest fires and deal with other emergencies. Constitutional questions have been raised as well, involving the role and authority of governors, which has led several states (including Pennsylvania, Indiana, Washington, and Oregon) to threaten lawsuits against Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

But mainly governors and members of Congress in affected states voice their concern in terms of defending against another terrorist attack on the US.

"This boils down to regional homeland security," says US Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) of Washington. Senator Cantwell notes that if the 15 F-15 fighters and eight KC-135 fuel tankers leave the 142nd Air National Guard fighter wing in Portland for other facilities in Louisiana, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Kansas, "the nearest fighter jets available [to the Pacific Northwest] in an emergency may be as far away as Fresno, Calif."

Meanwhile, other critics see the proposed changes in Air Guard forces as a part of another worrisome trend.

"Rumsfeld is trying to create more of a force that can intervene in third-world hot spots," says national security analyst Ivan Eland of the Independent Institute in Oakland, Calif. "Creating a force that makes it more flexible and easier to intervene overseas means the politicians will be tempted to use it more, thus creating more blowback attacks on the US homeland."

"Unfortunately," he adds, "these changes [in the Air National Guard] will reduce our ability to deal with such attacks."

All this has made the debate over the future of the Air Guard the most contentious part of the base-closing and realignment process.

BRAC commissioners this week vote on whether to accept, reject, or modify the Pentagon's recommendations. Their final version will go to President Bush by Sept. 8. Mr. Bush may either accept or reject that version without further modification. If he accepts it, it then goes to Congress, which also has as its only choices a yea or nay vote on the full plan.

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