Iraq's draft constitution delayed - again

The main outstanding issue now, according to Hassani, is the question of federalism.

Kurds are eager for their de facto autonomous status in the north to be enshrined in law, and some Shiites also want to create an autonomous region in the country's south. The south and the north of Iraq is where the oil is, while Iraq's Sunnis are concentrated in the oil-free center of the country. They fear both impoverishment, and the eventual breakup of the country along ethnic and sectarian lines if federalism goes ahead.

Now Iraq appears headed for a showdown on Thursday, with Sunni leaders like Mr. Mutlak saying the federalism that the Kurds and Shiites are demanding is a nonstarter.

"Despite the very real possibility that pushing through a draft constitution over Sunni Arab objections could prolong the violence, the Shiites and Kurds are pressing their agendas as if they had no understanding that such dire consequences were a serious possibility,'' says Mr. White.

US diplomats say they are aware of those risks, and Khalilzad's role has been to push them - sometimes cajoling, at other times reminding them of American blood spilled and money spent here - toward common ground. He participated in at least 10 hours of negotiations on Sunday, and was closeted with Iraqi political leaders throughout most of today.

Though in the past the US has insisted that Iraq would become a liberal, democratic model for the Arab world, the US ambassador has been a pragmatist in similar negotiations in the past. While serving as ambassador to Afghanistan, the country of his birth, Khalilzad helped write a constitution that carved out a major role for Islam in that country's laws.

"We are not getting any impression that they are with this side or with that. We feel they are trying to help our side as much as the other side," said Iyad al-Sammarai, spokesman for the Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni political group whose leaders have been arrested by American forces in the past. "I'm sure [the US] has a feeling that if a constitution is approved only by the Shiites and Kurds, they will not get what they want. What they want is stability."

Still, Mr. Sammarai says it's unclear how much US pressure can bring in this process, or if the desire for fast results will lead the US to eventually sign off on a constitution without Sunni backing.

"They're being helpful, but I can't tell if this is all they can do, or if they can do more,'' he says. "I feel Mr. Bush will say we're going ahead and meeting deadlines, so that's progress."

Part of the problem in finding a consensus that could satisfy the Sunnis is the violence among a segment of their own population. Sunni voters before last year's election were intimidated away from the polls by insurgents, and the US military say there are growing attacks on efforts to register voters in Sunni areas now.

While Sunni leaders have said that if a constitution is pushed through, they'll mobilize Sunni voters to reject it, that may be easier said then done.

If two-thirds of the voters in any three provinces reject the constitution in a referendum scheduled for October, it will be scrapped, and Sunnis are dominant in four provinces. But if the resistance prevents Sunnis from going to the polls at all, they won't be able to vote down an unsatisfactory constitution.

"We'll appeal to the resistance to let our people vote,'' says Shakr al-Falluji, a Sunni on the drafting committee. "Hopefully they'll listen."

White, now an adjunct scholar at the Middle East institute in Washington, says that's a tough proposition.

"It will be very difficult for Sunni Arab negotiators to accept even some of the compromise language currently on the table because agreeing to anything less than something close to their original demands makes them even more likely to be targeted by insurgents for assassination," he says. "The most vicious Sunni Arab insurgents are threatening Sunni Arabs who want to register to vote in the October referendum, making it harder for Sunni Arabs to employ the one political weapon they have left."

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