No early pullout for US troops?
Report: No significant withdrawal for at least a year.
Although US military officials in July said that they might be able to start drawing down US forces in Iraq by next spring,
The Washington Post reported on Thursday that a top US military officials now says it will be
at least a year before the US can bring significant numbers of US troops back to the US.
"As we go along, everything we do has that motive: leave it so they [the Iraqis] can sustain it after we're gone," the official said. "Everything we do with the military we do so they can sustain it after we're gone. Just so we're all thinking the same thing, this is not going to be someone flips a switch and all of a sudden we go from 138,000 to nothing. This is going to be gradual."
Efforts to train Iraqi security forces involve direct US military presence with the troops on the ground, the official said. "This is a bottom-up process based on the progress of these units. It's not going to be a precipitous process. As these guys come on line, we're backing ourselves out. It's tied to real, measurable" progress. "But," he added, "you can't build an army overnight."
At the same time, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told the media this week that there would probably be more troops sent to Iraq to help protect the country during elections expected to be held this fall. In a press conference Thursday, President Bush said the US is
considering sending more troops, but no decision has been made yet. And he also said there would be no early pullout of troops from Iraq.
Stars and Stripes reported Wednesday that Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a press conference that it was not out of the realm of possibility that some soldiers may be sent back to Iraq for a
third tour of duty. Myers also said that nobody knows when Iraqis will assume full control of security in the country, saying it was an "
event-driven" decision.
In an analysis for
The Washington Post, Peter Baker writes that the "
seemingly conflicting signals" over the past month have not only confused the public, but the administration itself "as some government officials involved in Iraq policy privately acknowledge."
Administration officials have all but given up any hope of militarily defeating the insurgents with US forces, instead aiming only to train and equip enough Iraqi security forces to take over the fight themselves. At the same time, they believe that the mission depends on building a new political infrastructure, a project facing its most decisive test in the next three days as deeply divided Iraqis struggle to draft a constitution by a Monday deadline.
In the face of all that, Bush is trying to buy time. After meeting with his national security team at his ranch near Crawford, Tex., yesterday, Bush again beseeched the public to stick with his strategy despite continuing mayhem on the ground, exemplified most recently by the deaths of 16 Marines from the same Ohio-based unit in the past two weeks. Overall, nearly 1,850 US troops have died.
The
Associated Press reports Friday that The National Guard and Reserve suffered more deaths - 32 - in
the first ten days of August than in any full month of the entire war. But the Pentagon rejects any suggestion that the "Guard and Reserve are more vulnerable in combat" because they are not full-time military." "We will not deploy a soldier, sailor, airman or Marine who is not fully trained and prepared for the mission," said Air Force Lt. Col. Ellen Krenke, a Pentagon spokeswoman.
Some see it differently. Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst with the Brookings Institution think tank, said Thursday that while the performance of reservists has been generally excellent, some are shortchanged on training prior to arriving in Iraq.
"If we really believe that military personnel need months of intensive training before being at their best – as logic suggests and other evidence would seem to prove – it is hard to believe that most reservists in Iraq are really as strong as active-duty troops, especially when they first arrive in country," O'Hanlon said.
On Wednesday the Pentagon announced that as of July 31 the Army National Guard was running 23 percent
behind in recruiting for the year and the Army Reserve was 20 percent behind. The Marine Reserve is meeting its goal.
Meanwhile,
USA Today reported on Monday that an Ohio Marine Reserve unit that lost 19 members a week ago, had
asked for 1,000 additional troops to patrol the "volatile 24,000-square-mile territory" it was responsible for in Iraq. The request was never granted, according to the unit's colonel.
Pentagon spokesman Larry DiRita said Sunday, "I don't doubt every colonel wishes he had more in his area, but the decisions about how troops are (deployed) are made by the commanders above them." Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said that he would authorize an increase in the number of troops in Iraq if top commanders asked for them. The Pentagon says that so far they haven't. Finally, a new Gallup poll for
USA Today and
CNN shows that 57 percent of Americans now believe that the war in Iraq
has made America less secure. That's almost a 20 percent swing since the same question was asked in June, when only 39 percent of Americans made the same comment.
Also...
•
Bush ducks mother of dead soldier (
Globe and Mail, Canada)
•
Bush vs. Rumsfeld (
Weekly Standard)
•
Despite armor, more Iraq troops dying in Humvees (
Scripps Howard News Service)
•
Signs of anti-war sentiments grow harder to ignore (
Indystar.com)
• Feedback appreciated. E-mail
Tom Regan
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