Is a bigger 'nuke club' inevitable?

Iran's resumption of sensitive nuclear activities may represent a defiant challenge to the West's entire nonproliferation strategy for Tehran.

That's because the Iranian move to restart its Isfahan uranium-conversion plant is something European negotiators directly asked the government not to do.

In technical terms, Iran today is no closer to obtaining nuclear weapons. Conversion is a process that precedes enrichment - the refining of uranium to bomb-ready grade.

But in flouting Germany, France, and Britain - the three nations that have taken the lead in the negotiations - Iran has essentially dared the United States and its European allies to start some kind of punishment process. The negotiations themselves, involving as they do a mixture of carrot inducements and implied use of sticks, might now be in trouble.

"What is worrisome is this creates the very real possibility that the two-year diplomatic process aimed at resolving this crisis is in severe jeopardy," says Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

It's possible that Iran might yet reverse its sudden spurt of North Korean-style brinkmanship. New Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said he is eager for more talks and will propose new approaches soon.

But on Wednesday Iran broke International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) seals at the Isfahan plant, paving the way for the full reopening of the facility. IAEA officials themselves removed the seals, per Tehran's request, after installing surveillance cameras to try to ensure no uranium is diverted to clandestine uses.

Under the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), of which Iran is a signatory, processing and enrichment of uranium for peaceful purposes are allowed. Iran thus isn't breaking the treaty with resumption of nuclear fuel work.

But Iran had agreed to a halt last November, after the IAEA found that Tehran had hidden weapons-grade fissile material. Germany, France, and Britain - referred to as the EU3, for the purposes of negotiations with Iran - argue that the only way Tehran can prove it has no intention of obtaining weapons is now to renounce nuclear fuel cycle activity, even though it would be allowed under the NPT.

"The door remains open for Iran to come back to the [negotiation] process by urgently halting all work," said a British Foreign Office statement released on Wednesday.

For now, the next steps of the EU3 and the US remain unclear. The IAEA board of governors postponed an emergency meeting originally scheduled for Wednesday so that diplomats could confer privately on the matter.

Other developing nations on the IAEA board may not be eager to agree to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for consideration of sanctions.

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