Al Qaeda to West: It's about policies

Analysts cautioned that Zawahiri's statement is not evidence of direct Al Qaeda knowledge of the London attacks, and said it probably fits into Al Qaeda's evolution into an ideological motivator, rather than organizer, of attacks.

"Such messages are usually a call-to-arms, sort of top-down guidance to go forth and do your thing," says Ayers. He says while Al Qaeda was "tightly organized" before the invasion of Afghanistan, the dispersal of members since has left a "confederation of groups that adhere to the same fundamental principles.... essentially they are functionally autonomous groups."

Magnus Ranstorp, a terrorism expert at St. Andrews University in Scotland, agrees. "This is more of him rallying the troops - giving the green light to carry out attacks.... Here we have a clarion call to action. It is serving as an inspiration for like-minded extremists."

Some analysts, though, see it as an oblique claim of responsibility. "In many ways, this videotape can almost be seen as a claim of responsibility, bin Laden style,'' says Evan Kohlmann, a terrorism expert and author in New York. "When Al Qaeda is responsible for a big operation like the embassy bombings, 9/11, or London, it is much more characteristic for them to issue a statement such as this one, hinting at Al Qaeda involvement without removing that shadowy mystical aura that Al Qaeda leaders love to propagate."

Both Messrs. Kohlmann and Ranstorp point out that Zawahiri tapes are frequently followed by new attacks. "Zawahiri's latest ode may once again herald renewed terrorist violence. Even beyond the West, countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Pakistan are steeling themselves for possible future strikes," says Kohlmann.

The coordinated bombings of Madrid's train system in March 2004, which killed more than 200 people, came just days before elections in Spain that brought to power Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who had vowed to pull Spanish troops from the US coalition in Iraq. Though it's not clear whether that attack swayed voters enough to alter the result of the election, it's seen that way on jihadi websites.

US intelligence analysts say it's likely that bin Laden and Zawahiri are living in the mountains along the lawless border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, something that President Musharraf appeared to confirm at a press conference last month. He said Pakistani troops in the Waziristan region had obliterated Al Qaeda's "command and communications" infrastructure, and said the group is now relying on couriers who take "months" to carry messages out of the region.

But this video was recorded since the first London attack, less than a month ago. It shows Zawahiri sitting on the ground, outside, with a brown backdrop. "It is also a reminder that the US has failed in its mission to bring the ultimate mastermind to justice,'' says Ranstorp.

Ranstorp notes that Zawahiri has made repeated threats against Pakistan. "There is a duality to the message," he says. "There's the focus of making Iraq like Vietnam for the Americans, but there's also a threat to Pakistan. It could accelerate the confrontation between Musharraf and the the extremist religious elements."

• Staff writer Mark Sappenfield in Washington and correspondent Mark Rice-Oxley in London contributed to this report.

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