Rice's no-show irks Southeast Asia

Diplomats suggest ASEAN might share some of the blame for slipping down Rice's priority list. The organization "meets a lot [and] talks a lot," says one, adding that ASEAN shies away from bold actions and is reluctant to push recalcitrant members.

One irritant in US-ASEAN relations is military-ruled Burma, which is due to assume the organization's rotating chair in 2006. Under pressure from the US and the European Union, which have both sanctioned Burma over its political repression, ASEAN members, who favor consensus over confrontation, have tried to find a face-saving way to skip Burma's chairmanship. The Burmese have hinted they may opt to decline the chair to head off conflict - and more no-shows.

"If Burma has the chair, it's unlikely that we or other dialog partners would go to Rangoon," says a senior US official in the region, referring to the Burmese capital. "Burma is a thorn in ASEAN's side. It impedes their ability as an organization to move forward on a lot of their agenda items with the rest of the world."

Burma isn't the only repressive ASEAN state to have drawn Washington's ire. Vietnam has been criticized for curbing religious freedoms and jailing political prisoners. Sen. Mitch McConnell frequently assailed Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen as a tyrant and has blocked direct US aid to Cambodia, one of Asia's poorest nations.

However, US pressure on Cambodia and Burma hasn't produced democratic reforms. Instead, say analysts and Western diplomats, it has pushed their governments further in the direction of China, which offers political and economic support with fewer strings attached.

Hun Sen recently returned from China with pledges of bilateral loans and investments put at $400 million. Western and Japanese donors pumped around $500 million into Cambodia in 2004.

Coupled with China's reported interest in acquiring a naval docking base in Cambodia and its military aid to Burma, such largess could signal a shift to an expansionist presence in the region. China has competing territorial claims in the South China Sea with other ASEAN members, including Vietnam.

"China wants to make sure its neighbors and near-neighbors don't create problems, particularly when they have resources that it wants," says a senior European diplomat in the region.

Chinese leaders have presented their diplomatic dance in Southeast Asia as a commercially driven win-win. Analysts say Beijing is reaping political goodwill from high-profile investments in the region, while leaving unanswered a key question about its long-term goal.

"China's medium-term policy is to be seen as a strong benign partner [in Southeast Asia]. What's less certain is that once China becomes that strong power and sits, let's say, shoulder to shoulder with the US, how will it behave then?" asks Razak Baginda, director of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center in Kuala Lumpur.

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