Australia sidesteps US on China
Bush wants Howard to back tough Beijing stance, but Aussies focus on economic interests.
President Bush has repeatedly called Australia one of America's staunchest allies and its Prime Minister John Howard a "good friend." While the two continue to agree about Iraq and the need to be
vigilant about terrorism, a noticeable split has occurred over China.
The US, the world's only superpower, sees China as a future military rival. A Pentagon report released Tuesday said that Beijing is modernizing its military with an eye on
expanding its influence throughout Southeast Asia.
Australia, on the other hand, is much closer in proximity to China than to the US, and sees China as an untapped market that is poised to be developed.
Bloomberg reported Wednesday that Australia's exports to China have more than
doubled in the past five years as China's own economy has expanded. Australia's currency has also gained 3.4 percent in the past year.
When the two leaders met in Washington this week, the
Age of Melbourne, Australia reported that Mr. Howard "resisted strong public pressure from Mr. Bush" to denounce China's record on human rights. When they appeared to together at a news conference, Howard made a point to say that Australia's relationship with China
went beyond a monetary one.
"The economic relationship between Australia and China is different from the economic relationship between the United States and China," he said.
"And I understand that, and the President and I talked about that today, but I have a more optimistic view about the relationship between China and the United States," Mr Howard said, also playing down the prospect of any military conflict between China and the US over Taiwan. "We have a good relationship with China. It's not just based on economic opportunity; there are a lot of people-to-people ties between Australia and China, and they're growing all the time."
The
Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports that the relationship has become more complicated between the three countries since "would-be defecting Chinese diplomat Chen Yonglin" said last month that China is specifically trying to "
woo Australia away from the US."
... Mr. Chen has detailed how China wants Australia to play a role - like France - of saying "no" to the US and that it's using the leverage of trade to keep Australia quiet on human rights and other sensitive issues. For China, the most sensitive issue of all is Taiwan and, on that, Mr. Chen says his former political masters believe that Foreign Minister Downer has indicated that the ANZUS treaty wouldn't automatically cause Australia to join the US in a future military defence of Taiwan. The
Age reports that Chen is
headed to the US to "testify before the US House of Representatives subcommittee on human rights." On Tuesday, Howard said that his country's decision to grant a protection visa to Chen was proof that his government would talk to China about human rights, but that Australia's relationship with China as "mature enough 'to ride through temporary arguments such as that.' "
The Christian Science Monitor reported last week that the US has been paying a lot more attention to the Australia-China relationship since Australia Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said during a press conference in Beijing about the Taiwan situation, that the ANZUS treaty between Australia, New Zealand and the US, could only be invoked if "there was
a direct attack on another member's soil" - meaning that Australia would not automatically join the US if it fought a war with China over Taiwan.
"China is an extraordinary market for Australia, but it's also Howard's biggest nightmare," says Michael McKinley, professor of social sciences at the Australian National University in Canberra. "For Australia to have to make a choice between the US and Beijing over Taiwan is something that Canberra hopes will never happen ... and Howard will make the point with Bush that there is no contradiction between Australia's economic security being tied to China and its military security being linked to the US." But columnist Peter Hatcher writes in the
Sydney Morning Herald that Howard's ability to influence the US on issues like China has weakened since moderates like former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and his deputy Richard Armitage, have left government, leaving "Dick Cheney hawks in charge," who tend to
have their own version of events, regardless of the actual situation.
A former senior official in the Clinton Pentagon, Kurt Campbell, cautions that many people inside the Administration do not perceive reality in the same way as most people on the outside. "A lot of people who support the President are really not interested in the facts on the ground," Campbell says. "There really is a faith-based belief in the President as a person and in his ability to remake reality."
So [for instance] where others believe the Iraq adventure has clarified the limits to US power, the Bush Administration believes it illustrates the need for the application of yet more power. [Former national security adviser to Prsident Carter Zbigniew] Brzezinski sums up: "To put it simply, if we weren't in a mess in Iraq we would be repeating it in Iran or Syria."
Gerald Henderson, of the Sydney Institute, writes in the
Sydney Morning Herald about generations of Australian leaders who've looked to China with "
affectionate and misty eyes," even during the "murderous reign" of Chairman Mao Zedong. But Mr. Henderson argues, it's time for Australian politicians to look at China more realistically and more critically.
Australian business wants to trade with China. That's understandable. But there is no incompatibility between doing business with China and speaking out about its human rights violations. After all, China is only buying and selling Australian goods and services because it wants the product. It's much the same with foreign policy. In Washington at the weekend Howard was correct in publicly criticizing the comments by Major-General Zhu Chenghu that Beijing might launch nuclear attacks on the US over Taiwan.
After all, Australia is a democracy committed to human rights and an ally of the US. ... Australians should be brave in speaking realistically to and about Mao's self-proclaimed heirs in Beijing.
Finally,
The Australian reported last week that Howard's government is set to "defy the US" on another important issue. Australia said it will "vote in favor of a resolution to expand membership of the UN Security Council from 15 to 25 nations." The resolution has been vigorously denounced by the Bush administration, which said it was "divisive and argued for no changes to the make-up of the Security Council at this time."
The G-4 [Japan, India, Brazil and Germany] members envisage themselves and two African nations making up the six new permanent members, but the proposal rules out any expansion of the veto power currently held by the original "Big Five" of the US, Russia, China, Britain and France.
Australia's support for the proposal is aimed squarely at strengthening bilateral relations with Japan and India. It was no fluke that the UN representatives of those nations in New York were the first to be formally advised of Australia's decision.
Also...
•
Lessons from a journey across the Arab world (
Daily Star)
•
Algerian diplomats seized in Iraq (
BBC)
•
Creating an Asian alliance (
The Washington Times)
•
Blair says situation 'under control' after bombs (
Guardian)
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Tom Regan
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