Bush faces tough choice to fill Supreme Court vacancy

From the social conservatives' perspective, the White House is well aware of the grassroots objections to Gonzales. Publicly, religious conservatives express confidence that Bush will "do the right thing" and name someone else they can support. Privately, one activist said, "I'd be a little surprised if the president was going into a fight knowing that all his troops weren't behind him."

Gary Bauer, another religious-conservative activist, says he's not worried that Gonzales might be nominated, because he trusts Bush to keep his word. "He's said so many times that Scalia and Thomas are his examples of good judges, so to me it didn't seem credible that Gonzales would be in that same category," says Mr. Bauer, head of the group American Values. "I do think that the president knows there are high expectations that he will attempt to bring the Supreme Court closer to the values of the people who have elected him twice."

When talk centered more on Chief Justice William Rehnquist as likely to retire first, many of the names bandied about were of solidly conservative white men. Now, says legal historian David Garrow, "all these encomiums to O'Connor as the first woman really make it, in presidential-legacy terms, a matter of much greater historical heft to name the first Hispanic to replace the first woman."

Other analysts insist that Bush does not have to name a woman or a minority to Justice O'Connor's seat. But when O'Connor announced her resignation on July 1, the White House made clear women were under consideration. One name that shot to the top in conservative circles was Edith Brown Clement, a conservative judge on the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

Still, the Gonzales talk has not gone away. On conservative blogs, Mr. Garrow notes, the only question is whether Bush nominates Gonzales now or to replace Justice Rehnquist. Some religious conservatives agree that Gonzales is still in the running - despite the ramifications for Bush's base.

"I think it's a live option, only because the president has such confidence in him, and the president's confidence may in fact trump the lack of support in the grassroots," says Deal Hudson, a conservative Catholic activist.

Jim Guth, an expert on religion and politics at Furman University in Greenville, S.C., surmises that the better path for Bush might be to nominate someone now whom religious conservatives can support and save Gonzales for later. He mentions two possible names, Fourth Circuit Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson and Tenth Circuit Judge Michael McConnell, as filling that bill - while also not likely arousing a filibuster in the Senate.

Still, Professor Guth believes Bush could still finesse a Gonzales pick. "I've always been impressed with Mr. Bush's ability to stay in touch with rank-and-file conservative Protestants, think what they're thinking, make the moves that may not please the movement organizations but generally seem satisfactory or even appealing to more mainstream religious conservatives," Guth says. "As we go on through the new millennium, the movement organizations in some ways matter less and less."

One sure thing is that several more days of speculation lie ahead. The White House says Bush will not name a nominee until after he returns from Europe on July 8. More likely, he will wait at least until the following Monday, July 11.

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