Battle readies over Rehnquist's seat

On July 1, 1987, when President Reagan nominated Robert Bork for the Supreme Court, the reaction was instant - and devastating.

In less than an hour, Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) of Massachusetts took to the Senate floor and unloaded: In "Robert Bork's America," he said, "back-alley abortions" would return, blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters, and "rogue police" would conduct midnight raids on citizens.

Judge Bork's confirmation effort was knocked off balance and never recovered.

Eighteen years later, with a possible Supreme Court retirement nearing, maybe as early as next week, interest groups are taking that public-relations lesson to heart, ready to react with warp-speed in a media environment that has only grown more diverse and saturated. With the push of a computer button, talking points will go out to hundreds of thousands of activists; cable TV and the blogosphere will hum with intensity.

Already, the PR battle has begun, as speculation swirls around the ailing chief justice, William Rehnquist. Liberal groups have been calling on Bush to conduct bipartisan Senate consultations to arrive at a "consensus candidate," as previous presidents have done, and avoid a confirmation donnybrook. But across-the-aisle consultation has not been Bush's style, especially lately, as his agenda sputters. Furthermore, there has not been a Supreme Court vacancy in 11 years, and pent-up energy for a confirmation battle has been building. The infrastructure is also in place: Alliances have formed, phone banks are ready, money is being raised. Files with research on likely nominees are poised for deployment.

In the current overheated, partisan environment, liberal interest groups seem to be operating on the assumption that President Bush is likely to nominate a conservative who is "outside the mainstream" - e.g., would probably vote to overturn Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortion in 1973.

Especially on abortion, both sides agree there is little common ground. Keeping the current count of anti-Roe votes in place - the best the anti-abortion camp can achieve, if the conservative Rehnquist retires - is a top goal of social conservatives, until the departure of liberal or moderate justices can tip the court's balance.

So the signs point toward confrontation - and likely liberal attempts to stir up controversy, even if Bush nominates a top-notch jurist with a squeaky-clean background. The president has the first shot, but that's no guarantee that he frames the debate to his best advantage, analysts say.

"It's not the first person who's out of the box, it's whether the administration puts the frame in place that's difficult for anyone else to rebut," says Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

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