Q & A: Lebanon's elections

Nicholas Blanford, the Monitor's Beirut correspondent, answers questions about Lebanon's parliamentary elections, which have been taking place in five regions over four consecutive Sundays, beginning with Beirut on May 29. Sunday, the southern district voted, to be followed by the Bekaa Valley and Mount Lebanon on June 12 and northern Lebanon on June 19.

Why are these elections so important?

It's the first vote free from Syrian interference since the end of Lebanon's 1975-1990 conflict. Although Syrian troops first moved into Lebanon in 1976, Damascus took full control of Lebanon only at the end of the war in 1990. The first parliamentary polls in 20 years were held in 1992, and again in 1996 and 2000. However, each election was manipulated, and districts were drawn to ensure that Syria's Lebanese allies would be returned to power.

Now that Syrian troops and intelligence agents have left Lebanon because of the protests and international pressure following the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February, the results of these elections will help define the direction the country takes in coming months.

How do voters choose candidates?

Voters are offered lists of candidates, which include female contenders. A prominent politician may decide to head his own list. He then selects a number of candidates to fill the various sectarian slots apportioned by law for his electoral district.

If Shiite Muslims form the majority in his electoral district, then Shiite candidates will form the majority on the list, followed by the next-largest religious sect, and so on.

By polling day, there could be, say, three competing lists in one electoral district. But voters do not have to approve any one list in its entirety. They can mix and match lists, marking off names on one list and replacing them with others. So, it's candidates that count, whether they are independents or members of a party.

How will the opposition fare?

The leading opposition parties are the Future Tide movement, led by Rafik's son, Saad Hariri, and the Democratic Gathering, led by Walid Jumblatt. They, along with various smaller allies, have much more support than their opponents, some of whom sided with Syria in the past, and some of whom are former allies in the opposition. In the first round of voting in Beirut on May 29, Hariri's list swept all 19 seats.

Several prominent pro-Syrian figures have withdrawn from the electoral race, including Emile Lahoud Jr., the son of the Lebanese president. He says he quit in protest of the law under which the elections are being held. But the reality is that he and several other Syrian allies are no longer likely to be elected.

Mr. Hariri predicts that the opposition will win 80 to 90 of the 128 seats in parliament. Hariri is a leading contender to be the country's next prime minister.

How is the prime minister chosen?

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