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posted May 20, 2005, updated 12:00 p.m.

US generals say Iraq outlook 'bleak'

Growing insurgency, sectarian violence, force military to reexamine US situation in Iraq.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

US military commanders from both Iraq and Afganistan, in a series of briefings and interviews over the past week, gave downbeat assessments of the situations in both countries. The New York Times reports that the generals "pulled back" from predictions made earlier this year that the US would be able to substantially reduce its troop level by early 2006.

One general said that the US would be in Iraq and Afghanistan for " many years to come."


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Another senior officer in Baghdad, speaking to the Times on condition of anonymity, said unless the new Iraq government gives Iraqis something to believe in, the US mission in Iraq could collapse.

'I think that this could still fail,' the officer said at the background briefing, referring to the US effort in Iraq. 'It's much more likely to succeed, but it could still fail.' He said much depended on the new government's success in increasing public confidence among Iraqis.
The officer said recent polls conducted by Baghdad University had shown confidence flagging sharply, down from an 85 percent rating immediately after the elections. 'For the insurgency to be successful, people have to believe the government can't survive,' he said. 'When you're in the middle of a conflict, you're trying to find pillars of strength to lean on.'

The Boston Globe reported Thursday that Gen. John Abizaid, chief of US Central Command, said one of the main reasons for the deterioration of the situation was the "slow progress of Iraqi police is delaying improvements in the country's overall security, forcing Iraqi military units to perform internal security functions."

In an analysis piece for the The Washington Times, Martin Seiff, United Press International senior news analyst, says that it was a " bad week" for US policy in Iraq. Not only did you have the US military saying that troops would be in the region for years, but the new government of Iraq gave a warm welcome to the Iranian foreign minister.

... the strongest sign yet that Iraq won't stay in Washington's pocket. This also signals the danger of a huge Iraqi Shiite reaction against US forces if the United States ever clashes with Iran over its nuclear program.

The Christian Science Monitor reports that the visit by the Iranian foreign minister "underscored a US policy dilemma in Iraq."

'You've got two different trajectories, and I don't think the Americans have come to this realization,' says Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, contacted in Tehran. 'The Americans have hard power in Iraq, but the Iranians have soft power, and they are able to do things. It is a much more subtle influence than the Americans.'

The Washington Times also notes that the "somber public acknowledgement by senior Army officers this week is likely to come as a cold shock to the US public and to hawkish media commentators" who had assumed that the recent election of an Iraqi government would declaw the insurency.

Meanwhile, Agence-France Presse reports that a "series of tit-for-tat" killings has raised sectarian tensions " to the boiling point" in Iraq.

The Committee of Muslim Scholars, Iraq's main Sunni religious authority, on Wednesday accused a Shi'ite militia of killing Sunnis after dozens of bodies turned up in Baghdad. Some of the dead had been tortured ... The Sunni committee said security forces 'formed mostly by militias of certain parties taking part in the government' were responsible for killing 14 Sunnis, including three imams, in western Baghdad recently.

The Shiite interior minister and the Sunni defense minister have both denied the religious group's claims.

Radio Free Europe notes that the rise in tensions comes on the heels of this week's pronouncement by Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, that the country's Shiite population " has betrayed the Muslim cause," and that killing innocent Muslims was justified if it happens when attacking "collaborators."

The Los Angeles Times reports that the situation in Iraq had now forced the Bush administration to do something it says it didn't want to do: " deepen its involvement in the process of running Iraq."

The new American approach came clearly into focus this week. Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick, visiting Iraq on Thursday, called for 'an inclusive process' in governing the country and urged action on a new constitution. His trip came days after a visit by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Rice's visit, which carried a signal of American support for the fledgling government, was 'very welcome,' [Karim Khutar Almusawi of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq] said.

Finally, in a move designed to inflame tensions with US forces in Iraq, the Associated Press reports radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called on mosques to paint US and Israeli flags outside their entrances, so that worshippers could step on them. He said the move was a protest against "US occupation" and for the alleged desecration of a Koran by US interrogators in Guantanamo, Cuba.