Iran and North Korea: headed for the Security Council?
More claims and counter-claims about nuclear weapons development in both nations.
By
Jim Bencivenga
| csmonitor.com
When it comes to covering nuclear non-proliferation, the world press can be excused if it runs the headline, "Deja vu all over again."
The story remains: Will Western nations haul either Iran, or North Korea, or both, before the UN Security Council with charges of nuclear weapons development thereby triggering economic sanctions?
As the diplomatic pendulum swings this week, it appears more likely that Iran and less likely North Korea is in line for a UN reprimand. For now at least.
Speaking for France, Germany and Britain, the European "
troika" acting on behalf of the 25-country European Union, British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Thursday unequivocally stated that he would "support referring Iran to the Security Council if it breaches an undertaking" begun last fall "to freeze activities capable of producing weapons-grade material," reports the Toronto
Globe and Mail.
South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon, on the other hand, when asked about the possibility of
going to the Security Council over North Korea's announcement this week that it had removed spent fuel from a nuclear reactor, said Thursday "a decision had not yet been made" on the matter, reports
The New York Times.
The result in both cases is that no one knows what the nuclear-weapons development realities are for either Iran or North Korea.
But Western officials tacitly admit each country "may be engineering a controlled crisis to obtain more concessions," which in Iran's case is "
misreading the mood in Europe, which is not willing to tolerate Iran violating its agreements," says the
BBC.
As if on cue, when Mr. Blair indicated the EU would bring Iran before the Security Council,
Middle East Online reports that Iranian state television aired an announcement that it "
may delay the resumption of some of its sensitive nuclear activities."
'It is possible that this resumption is delayed for a while,' Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, a vice president and head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, was quoted as saying. He nevertheless said that a resumption of certain nuclear activities tied to the conversion of uranium ore was 'certain', but did not give any date. The
BBC reports that a senior Iranian nuclear negotiator was sent to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, in Vienna with a letter on Thursday.
Some reports say the letter, which has not been delivered, contains formal notification that Iran is about to break United Nations seals on the Isfahan plant.
The breaking of the seals would, correspondents say, signal the collapse of the negotiating process on Iran's nuclear programs.
The basis of the talks was a promise by Iran to suspend all its nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment.
But on Friday, after weeks of threats, Iranian officials publicly said they had decided to
hold off on a plan to notify the IAEA of their intention to restart a uranium-conversion facility in Isfahan, reports the
Washington Post.
Privately, however, a senior Iranian diplomat said his government had not made any decision about resuming the nuclear work and had responded positively to an offer in the European letter for a four-way meeting to discuss the issue. Iran wants the meeting held in Tehran, saying that it would be difficult for officials to leave the country so close to Iran's June 17 presidential elections. European diplomats said they want guarantees that Iran is serious about maintaining its nuclear suspension before Europe sends a delegation to the Iranian capital. At the same time at the United Nations, Brazilian diplomat Sergio de Queiroz Duarte, who chairs a month-long conference reviewing the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty said Thursday that "delegates have
decided not to take a decision on whether North Korea is in or out of the treaty," reports
The Korea Herald.
South Korea is clear that a North Korean weapons test would
seriously damage the South's economy, reports
Reuters, but remains "confident that, rather than let off a bomb, the North will return to talks on ending its atomic ambitions."
'I believe that North Korea is undergoing a process of understanding the true meaning of reconciliation and cooperation that we seek,' the South's defense minister told a group of European business leaders in Seoul. 'And it is inevitable for North Korea to choose change and take the path of dialogue,' Yoon Kwang-ung said.
Reuters quotes Masao Okonogi, a Korea specialist at Keio University in Tokyo, on the uncertainty of whether or nor the North would conduct a test.
'This is still at the stage of a psychological game,' Okonogi said. 'What they're trying to do is draw out information from the United States over the next few months by threatening to do a nuclear test and putting pressure on them.' South Korea and China, in "keeping with their
long-standing positions that politically and economically engaging North Korea is the best way to avert a collapse and to encourage reform," have long opposed actions, like a quarantine to prevent the smuggling of nuclear materials, or economic sanctions and going to the Security Council, reports the
New York Times.
Another factor says Iranian-American Karim Sadjadpour, an analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group quoted by the
Globe and Mail, is that "the crisis can be resolved only if the United States is directly in the talks and takes into account Iran's national pride and security interests."
'The key thing is offering Iran some security assurances because as long as the regime fears the US is bent on changing the regime in Tehran, then they're going to feel the need to continue to develop a nuclear deterrent,' he said by telephone from Tehran. 'No amount of incentives on airplane spare parts and things like that are going to be sufficient if Iran feels that Washington is bent on removing the regime.' The same perception of US intent held by Iran is likewise held by North Korea, say analysts.
Also...
•
A weak hand in Korea (
Boston Globe)
•
It's Not Over (
National Review)
•
US Military Seeks to Close More Than 150 Bases (
Bloomberg)
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