If Senate shuts down, who's to blame?

In recent days, Democrats have been quietly putting their own bills on the Senate calendar. Using an obscure Senate procedure called Rule XIV, they plan to move these bills onto the agenda if Republicans "pull the trigger" on the nuclear option. By tradition, it's the Senate majority leader who sets the Senate agenda.

"By invoking the nuclear option, they will have shattered the comity in the Senate, so Democrats won't be bound by the usual way of doing business," says Jim Manley, spokesman for Senate Democrats.

These bills include legislation to reduce the number of unintended pregnancies and abortions by increasing funding for family planning, giving more help to disabled veterans, renewing pay-as-you-go provisions to curb federal deficits, guaranteeing overtime pay for workers, and raising the minimum wage.

Despite two prominent defections, Republicans say they have the votes to win on the Senate floor, should the nuclear or constitutional option come to a vote. Some Democrats dispute that vote count. "It would already have come to a head if they had the votes," Senator Reid said.

Meanwhile, polls show tepid public support for the nuclear option. A recent private poll, reported by the Associated Press, signals that only 37 percent of Americans support the GOP plan to change the filibuster rules; 51 percent opposed a change.

At the same time, business groups are also signaling a rift on the issue. While the National Association of Manufacturers has thrown its support behind the Republicans on judges, the US Chamber of Commerce is urging compromise.

"I'm hopeful that both parties will find a way to get together and allow votes on at least a few of these [judges], so we avoid tying up the Senate," said Thomas Donohue, president of the US Chamber of Commerce on Friday. Should the Senate gridlock over the issue, it's unlikely that Congress will complete an energy bill, fix healthcare programs, expand free trade, resolve asbestos lawsuits, or advance anything else on the business agenda.

But supporters say the filibuster fight has come too far for Republicans to back down. And some say even a failed push for the judges could bolster Republicans' standing with their conservative base.

"Senator Frist has been patient beyond any reasonable level," says Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) of Texas, vice chair of the Republican Conference. "Even if he loses, he is going to keep his word."

Meanwhile, Democrats say that Frist's stance is being driven as much by outside groups and his own goals as by the dynamics of the Senate. "I'm afraid his presidential aspirations are getting in the way of his Senate leadership position. I hope he can overcome this," Reid said. Republicans charge that Democrats are being driven by their own array of outside interest groups.

Some on both sides hope a showdown, and its after-effects, can still be averted.

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