Iraqi troop training: signs of progress

So last fall the number was revised downward again, to 90,000, Rear Adm. William Sullivan, Vice Director for Strategic Plans and Policy for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a House hearing. "We are just now beginning ... a qualitative assessment of how the various Iraqi security forces are doing, modeling it after the kinds of systems we use for our own military to measure unit readiness," said Adm. Sullivan.

Yet there may still be some flaws in the system, according to critics. Take the current estimate of 142,000 trained and equipped Iraqi troops.

This figure includes no adjustment for Iraqi military forces that may be absent without leave - a continuing problem in a nation where insurgents attempt to intimidate troops into leaving.

"This is like fantasyland. This is as fictive as the weapons of mass destruction," former presidential candidate Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) of Ohio complained at the House hearing.

Yet such focus on the numbers per se may be missing the point. It's true that Iraqi forces differ sharply in capability - and that not even the best army units are the equal of their US counterparts, according to Mr. Cordesman.

But pay and leave policies present problems, too. Iraqi military installations generally do not provide housing for troops, and this leaves their families vulnerable. Many soldiers have to visit their families and turn over their pay in cash, which means that a high percentage will be on leave at any time. Consequently, they are not always available for duty, and they are vulnerable to insurgent attack.

But Cordesman said that many Iraqi officials themselves say that virtually every element of their military and police forces can perform some function, and that the situation is steadily improving as new and better forces come on line. "From their perspective, the issue is not whether the glass is two-thirds empty or one-third full, it is how rapidly it is filling," he said.

Due to missteps and a misjudgment about the strength of the insurgency at its onset, the US really did not begin a concerted training effort until 10 months ago, said Cordesman. "The Iraqis actually involved in shaping Iraq's new forces are not pessimistic," he noted. "Most believe that Iraqi forces are growing steadily better with time, will acquire the experience and quality to deal with much of the insurgency during 2005, and should be able to secure much of the country by 2006."

Enough progress has apparently been made that US officials are becoming more explicit about when American troops might start coming home. On Sunday, the top US military commander in Iraq, Army Gen. George Casey, predicted on CNN's "Late Edition" that the US should be able to make a "very substantial reduction" in the number of forces within a year.

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